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BL Research Bureau
The rupee (INR), after closing flat yesterday, has opened marginally lower against the dollar (USD). Currently hovering around 74.8, the local currency has crucial support at 75. At the other end, 74.5 is considerable support, and for the past one week, the exchange rate has been oscillating between these two levels.
If the local currency weakens and breaks below support at 75, it can depreciate to 75.1. Subsequently, it might move to 75.3. But if INR rallies from the current level, the immediate hurdle it can face is probably at 74.7. A breakout of this level can take the rupee to 74.5.
Yesterday, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) were sellers as the market traded with a bearish bias. The net outflow on Monday stood at about ₹450 crore (debt and equity combined).
Dollar index
The dollar index seems to be under bear grip as it continued to head south on Monday, extending the downtrend for six weeks in a row. Yesterday, it registered a fresh two-year low of 93.48 as the dollar continues to lose sheen. Though it has recovered a bit today, the rally will most likely be sold into as the downtrend appears considerably strong. This can help rupee gain ground against the greenback.
Trade strategy
Even though the rupee opened a little lower, it remains above the critical support of 75. Also, the dollar is facing significant downward pressure, as indicated by the dollar index. Hence, traders can buy rupee on declines with stop-loss at 75.
Supports: 74.85 and 75
Resistances: 74.7 and 74.5
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