BL Research Bureau

The rupee (INR) weakened against the dollar (USD) on Friday closing at 71.12 versus its previous close of 71.04. Thus, it has closed below the critical level of 71 for the second consecutive day as the dollar rallied. This means that the local currency might depreciate further from current levels.

Acting as a considerable resistance, 71 will be the level that rupee must breach to restore the bullish momentum. Until then, the local currency will be subject to downward pressure. From current levels, supports can be spotted at 71.2 and 71.4.

Forex reserves

India’s foreign reserves continue to scale new highs, keeping up with the momentum. The weekly statistical supplement released by the RBI on Friday showed that the total foreign reserves have gone up by a little over $1 billion over the previous week. The total reserves increased to a new all-time high of $454.49 billion from $453.42 billion. Foreign Currency Assets (FCA), the largest component of the reserves went up by $1.16 billion to $422.42 billion from $421.25 in the same period. However, the value of gold holdings marginally decreased to $26.96 billion from $27.07 billion. The increasing foreign reserves is a useful tool for the RBI to manage any abnormal movement in the exchange rate of USDINR.

Dollar index

The dollar appreciated against the major currencies, and so the dollar index rallied on Friday. The index went past the resistance at 97 and is currently trading at 97.25. The weekly chart of the index has formed a hammer candlestick pattern, a potential indication of a bullish trend reversal. On the upside, 97.4 and 97.67 are the resistance levels, whereas 97 can be expected to act as a key base.

Trade strategy

Today, the rupee has opened at 71.13. Until it trades below 71, the local currency will most probably witness considerable selling pressure. So, traders can initiate fresh short positions on intraday rallies with 70.9 as stop loss.

Supports: 71.2 and 71.4

Resistances: 71 and 70.85

Published on December 23, 2019