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Nifty 50, Sensex and the Nifty Bank index witnessed a strong recovery last week. All three indices opened the week with a wide gap-up and remained stable after Monday’s initial rise. However, on Friday, all the three indices rose sharply indicating strength and momentum.
Broadly, Sensex and Nifty are continuing to retain their sideways range. Last week’s rise happened well within it. As mentioned last week, the broader structure on the chart has not changed much even after the recent geopolitical events. That keeps the overall bias positive. We retain our bullish view on the Nifty and Sensex to see a rise breaking above their current range on the upside. The Nifty Bank index, which has made a breakout earlier itself also has its door open to see more rise.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) were net buyers of Indian equities for the second consecutive week. However, the quantum of purchase was low. The equity segment saw a net inflow of about $139 million last week. If the FPIs increase their purchase quantum, then that can aid the Sensex and Nifty to move higher.
Nifty found support around 24,700 all through last week. It surged to a high of 25,136.20 before closing the week at 25,112.40, up 1.59 per cent.
Short-term view: The sideways range is intact. The trading range is 24,400-25,300. The bias is bullish to break 25,300 in the coming days. Such a break can take the Nifty up to 26,000-26,100 in the short term.
Failure to breach 25,300 can continue to keep the index inside the range for some more time. In that case, Nifty can fall back to 24,700 and even 24,500 in the near term.
The short-term outlook will turn negative only on a break below 24,400. If that happens, 24,000 can be seen on the downside.
Chart Source: TradingView
Medium-term view: There is no major change in the broader picture. The outlook is bullish. Nifty can rise to 28,000-28,500 over the medium term. Thereafter a corrective fall to 26,000 is a possibility. After this corrective fall, Nifty can rise back and target 31,000 on the upside over the long term.
Support is in the 24,000-23,500 region which is likely to limit the downside.
Last week we said that the Nifty Bank index can fall first and then rise back again. On the contrary, the index has risen straight away breaking above the 56,000 mark. It touched a high of 56,328.20 before closing the week at 56,252.85, up 1.31 per cent.
Short-term view: The outlook is bullish. Supports are at 55,250 and 54,950. Nifty Bank index can rise to 57,300, an intermediate resistance. A break above 57,300 can take it further up to 58,300 in the short term.
In case the Nifty Bank index fails to break 57,300 and turns down, a fall to 56,000-55,500 can be seen again. In that case, the rise to the aforementioned 58,300 will be delayed.
Chart Source: TradingView
Medium-term view: The big picture remains bullish. Nifty Bank index can rise to 58,500-59,000 first. A corrective fall to 56,000 can be seen then. Thereafter a fresh leg rise will have the potential to take the Nifty Bank index up to 61,000 over the long term.
The levels of 53,900 and 52,500 will continue to act as an important support.
The rise to 82,000 happened as expected last week. Sensex rose to a high of 82,494.59 and closed the week at 82,408.17, up 1.59 per cent.
Short-term view: The 80,500-83,000 range remains intact. The upper end of this range can be tested this week in the near term. We expect the Sensex to break 83,000 and rise to 84,500 eventually.
Failure to breach 83,000 can keep the range intact and drag the Sensex down within it to 82,000-81,000 again.
Chart Source: TradingView
Medium-term view: The outlook is bullish. Sensex can rise to 86,000 over the medium term. From the long-term perspective, Sensex has potential to target 90,000-92,000 over the next one year. Support for the index is around 79,000 which has to be broken to turn the outlook negative.
Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite index remained broadly stable all through the week. The S&P 500 index was down marginally by 0.15 per cent. NASDAQ Composite was up 0.21 per cent and the Dow closed the week on flat note.
The US Federal Reserve meeting failed to give a push for the markets as it largely turned out to be a non-event. The near-term picture looks mixed and unclear for the US benchmark indices.
Chart Source: TradingView
A crucial support is around 42,000 and the index is holding well above it now. A break below 42,000 will turn the near-term picture bearish and drag the Dow down to 41,200-41,000.
The Dow has to sustain above 42,000 and breach 43,000 to get a breather. Only then the index can gain momentum for a rise to 45,000.
Chart Source: TradingView
The price action is showing signs of a turnaround. Immediate support is at 5,950. A break below it will be bearish for the S&P 500 index to see a fall to 5,850-5,800.
Chart Source: TradingView
The index has to sustain above 5,950 and rise above 6,050 to strengthen the bullish case. Only then the expected rise to 6,200 will come into the picture.
The index is struggling to get a strong follow-through rise above 19,800. A rise above 19,800 is needed to see 20,000 on the upside.
Immediate support is at 19,345. A break below it can bring the index under pressure. Such a break can drag the NASDAQ Composite down to 19,050-19,000 in the short term.
Published on June 21, 2025
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