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Nifty 50 (25,112) and Nifty Bank (56,253), powered by the rally on Friday, ended last week with a gain of 1.6 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively. Below is an analysis of derivatives data of both indices.
Nifty futures (Jun) (25,112) rallied 1.6 per cent last week. While the Open Interest (OI) of June futures dropped by 8 per cent to 108 lakh contracts, the cumulative OI of Nifty futures (Jun, July and Aug combined) was up 4 per cent to 192 lakh contracts. This indicates that the broader view remains bullish.
Substantiating this, the Put Call Ratio (PCR) of both June (1.1) and July (1.4) expiry options stood above 1, indicating a positive bias. A ratio greater than 1 is because of relatively higher put selling and traders sell puts when they have a positive outlook.
Nifty futures (Jun) still remains within the 24,650-25,250 range. The aforementioned bullish inclination can soon lift the contract above the resistance at 25,250. Such a breakout can take the futures to 26,000.
On the other hand, if Nifty futures (Jun) slips below the support at 24,650, the downswing will most likely extend to 24,200 and 24,000, which are the notable support levels.
Note that June contracts expire on Thursday (June 26). So, here we are providing key price points of July futures as well.
Nifty futures (Jul) (25,201) has been consolidating between 24,750 and 25,400. A breakout of 25,400 can lead to a rally to 26,500 and 27,000. But a breach of the support at 24,750 can drag it to 24,250 and 24,000.
Strategy: Retain Nifty futures (Jun) buy initiated at 24,970. When it breaks out of 25,250, trail the stop-loss from the current 24,550 to 25,000. Exit at 26,000. In case neither target nor stop-loss is triggered before expiry, consider rolling over the longs to July series.
Exit the 24,800-call at the open on Monday. The trade was initiated at ₹228.40 and the contract closed at ₹380.65 on Friday. Fresh call longs can be considered in July options but after Nifty futures (Jul) surpasses 25,400.
Nifty Bank futures (Jun) (56,298) went up 1.2 per cent last week. But the contract’s OI decreased 10 per cent during this time and stood at 17.5 lakh contracts on Friday. The cumulative OI of futures did not change much over the past week.
The PCR of June options rose from 0.7 on June 13 to 0.9 on June 20, showing addition of put short positions. The PCR of July options was at 1.7 on Friday. So, overall, the option positioning is in favour of the bulls.
The price action shows that Nifty Bank futures is about to begin another leg of uptrend. As there are no open positions that we suggested in the June contract and that its expiry is near-by, we shall consider the July contract for analysis.
Nifty Bank futures (Jul) (56,459) can see a rally to 57,800 in the near term. The price band of 57,800-58,000 is a potential resistance. A clear breakout of 58,000 can lift the contract to 59,000.
But if there is a decline from the current level of 56,459, there is a support at 55,600, which can arrest the fall. Subsequent support is at 55,000.
Strategy: Buy Nifty Bank futures (Jul) now at 56,459 and on a dip to 56,200. Place initial stop-loss at 55,400. When the contract rises to 57,300, revise the stop-loss to 56,800. Book profits at 57,800.
Alternatively, one can buy 58,000-call of July expiry, which closed at ₹433.60 on Friday. Go long at ₹433 and at ₹360. Keep stop-loss at ₹200. Target can be ₹750.
Published on June 21, 2025
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