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Conditions favourable for monsoon to advance into M.P., U.P.

Vinson Kurian
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The low-pressure area over West Bengal has started interacting with the western disturbance to bring monsoon rains over the hills in North-West India and parts of adjoining plains.

The India Met Department said that rain has occurred at most places over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand in North-West India and Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Sikkim in East India.

Northern limit

But the northern limit of monsoon failed to make further progress after it broke the 15-day jinx to get a peep into parts of the North-West.

Conditions are favourable for its advance into some more parts of Madhya Pradesh, remaining parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana (including Delhi), Punjab and some parts of north Rajasthan during the next two days.

Many places over Jammu and Kashmir, east Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Odisha, Konkan, Goa, and coastal Karnataka received heavy overnight rainfall on Wednesday.

But the rain was confined to few places over west Uttar Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep.

Pacific churn

Isolated places over Haryana, Delhi, east Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, coastal Andhra Pradesh and north interior Karnataka witnessed passing showers.

Global models suggested that the ‘low’ over East India may continue to be active until the weekend before weakening over Odisha.

This is also the time around when the ground will have been prepared for the initiation of a cyclone/typhoon in the north-west Pacific, east of the Philippines. These models hinted that a preparatory low-pressure area may take shape by the weekend. It would go on to become a strong typhoon in the East China Sea. The system would concurrently become the prominent feature in the entire Asian monsoon system and would start pulling in flows from the Arabian Sea.

Heavy rain

These flows would be dragged into place over the West Coast first, before residual flows are hauled over peninsula, south Bay of Bengal, and onward into South China Sea/north-west Pacific.

Heavy to very heavy rain is likely over the West Coast right from Konkan-Mumbai down to north Kerala during the next week, according to a US Climate Prediction Centre.

(This article was published on July 2, 2014)
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