The current kharif season is likely to see higher basmati rice plantings by farmers in the two grain-bowl States of Punjab and Haryana. This notwithstanding the huge carry-forward stocks from the 2010 crop that could impact buyer sentiment at the time of harvest.

Last year, farmers got Rs 23-24 a kg for Pusa-1121, a popular evolved basmati variety that yields 16-18 quintals an acre compared with 9-10 quintals for the traditional tall cultivars. “This time, we may be able to pay only Rs 17-18,” said a basmati miller-cum-exporter.

The basmati trade is currently caught in a payments crisis, with over Rs 2,000 crore worth of receivables piled up against shipments to Iran and Iraq. This could result in a third of last year's estimated basmati paddy crop of 12 crore bags (of 50 kg) being carried over to the new marketing season from October.

But, all that may still not affect the acreage.

Rising basmati share

In 2010, basmati varieties accounted for roughly 7.2 lakh hectares (lh) out of Punjab's total 27 lh sown under paddy. Within the 7.2 lh basmati area, 1.84 lh was constituted by traditional varieties such as CSR-30 and HBC-19 and the balance by Pusa-1121, Pusa Basmati-1 and other evolved lines. In Haryana, the proportion of basmati to overall paddy area was even more – 7.8 lh out of 11.5 lh, with traditional varieties alone being 2.45 lh.

Compared with 2009, the overall basmati acreage rose from 5.1 lh to 7.2 lh in Punjab and from six lh to 7.8 lh in Haryana. A major contributing factor here was the heavy downpour and floods in early July, inundating large tracts of northern Haryana and south-east Punjab, where farmers had already undertaken transplanting of normal non-basmati paddy.

Since this area could not have been re-transplanted with non-basmati (the window for which was over by end-June), they had to go in for basmati varieties (where the regular transplantation schedule is from July 1 to end-July, extending to the first week of August for traditional basmati). This time round, basmati acreage might go up even further, floods or no floods. The increase is seen particularly in Pusa-1121, even while farmers may plant less of traditional basmatis. The reason for this is pure economics.

Basmati vs Parmal

“The average yield in parmal (ordinary non-basmati paddy procured by government agencies) is 25-26 quintals an acre, which is more than the 16-18 quintals for Pusa-1121. But, the official minimum support price for parmal is only Rs 11.10/kg, whereas the realisation from Pusa-1121 would be Rs 17-18, with potential for upside,” according to the miller.

“The rice from paddy bought for Rs 17-18 can be comfortably exported at $925-950 a tonne. And given current export realisations of $1,050-1,100 a tonne for Pusa-1121, there is no way farmers will receive less than Rs 17-18. If at all, they will only get more,” he added.

The other advantage with Pusa-1121 is its transplanting time after the monsoon's arrival, which reduces the outlay on diesel or electricity. This is unlike in parmal, where transplanting takes place in the peak summer during end-May to June, entailing additional irrigation costs.

The farmer, therefore, incurs lower expenses in basmati cultivation.

Taken as a whole, then, the returns from Pusa-1121 outweigh the risks on account of no assured government procurement unlike in the case of parmal paddy.

“I expect a decline in total paddy sowing this time, though the coverage of basmati varieties will increase in both relative and absolute terms. Moreover, there would be some diversion of paddy area to cotton, sugarcane and even maize,” Dr B.S. Sidhu, Director of Agriculture, Government of Punjab, told Business Line .

In fact, farmers in Punjab have, so far, planted only 4.26 lh under paddy, against the 5.75 lh covered during this period last year.

On the other hand, cotton area has registered expansion in both Punjab (from 5.59 lh to 5.75 lh) and Haryana (4.92 lh to 5.98 lh).

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