Cyclone Maha begins to weaken ahead of landfall

Extremely severe cyclone Maha has started on a weakening cycle ahead of its projected approach to the Gujarat coast even as a depression in the Bay of Bengal is forecast to intensify as a very severe cyclone by the weekend.

The tracks – East-North-East over the Arabian Sea and West-North-West over the Bay of Bengal – will take away the the North-East monsoon rains to drench West, North-West, East and adjoining Central India.

Read: The IMD bulletin

Tamil Nadu, which depends on seasonal rains for most of its needs, will be relegated to a position where it can only sit and watch as the rains bypass away to farther North-West and North-East.

But a weather tracker of the US Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Service seeks to convey there is no need just yet for Tamil Nadu and Chennai to throw up hands in despair.

The US agency sees the building cyclone in the Bay heading towards Bangladesh, and on its tail, easterly winds building afresh over the Bay of Bengal with a likely weather system upfront and looking at the Tamil Nadu coast. This is, however, subject to forecast verification.

Meanwhile Maha has weakened into a very severe cyclonic storm and lay centered around Tuesday noon over West-Central and adjoining East-Central Arabian Sea about 660 km West-South-West of Porbandar (Gujarat); 720 km West-South-West of Veraval (Gujarat); and 770 km West-South-West of Diu.

The IMD expects it to move rapidly East-North-East, egged on by an incoming western disturbance, along with gradual weakening. It may cross the Gujarat coast between Diu and Porbandar as a conventional cyclone with a maximum sustained wind speed of 70-80 km/hr gusting to 90 km/hr by early Thursday morning.

To the other side of the peninsula, the depression East-Central and adjoining South-East Bay of Bengal was located 200 km West-North-West of Maya Bandar (Andaman Islands); 920 km to South-South-East of Paradip (Odisha); 1,000 km South-South-East of Sagar Islands (Bengal) and 990 km South-South-West of Khepupara (Bangladesh).

It is very likely to intensify into a deep depression by Wednesday and further cyclone during the subsequent 24 hours. It is forecast to move initially to the West-North-West and then North-North-West towards North Odisha, Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coasts. This represents a track decided on by a series of western disturbances moving across North-West India and onward into East India.

Wind warning

Andaman and Nicobar Islands : Around Tuesday noon, squally winds with speed reaching 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr were prevailing over the Andaman Islands, the North Andaman Sea and adjoining areas South-East and East-Central Bay of Bengal. The wind speed may increase becoming 60–70 km/hr and gusting to 80 km/hr by Wednesday morning and decrease gradually thereafter.

Bay of Bengal : Squally winds with speed reaching 50-60 km/hr gusting to 70 km/hr are forecast over the East-Central Bay of Bengal around the centre of the depression until Wednesday, and will achieve gale wind speed reaching 80-90 km/hr gusting to 100 km/hr Thursday morning.

It will gradually increase further over the central parts of Bay of Bengal, becoming 120-130 km/hr and gusting to 145 km/hr by Friday evening.

Odisha and Bengal coasts : Squally winds with speed reaching 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr may commence over the North-West Bay of Bengal off the Odisha-Bengal coasts from Friday evening and gradually increase thereafter.

Sea condition

The sea condition will be rough to very rough (13-20 ft) over the North Andaman Sea and adjoining South-East and East-Central Bay of Bengal until Friday morning.

It will be very rough to high (20-30 ft) over the East-Central Bay of Bengal till Thursday morning and become very high to phenomenal (30-46 ft) by the evening to Friday evening.

It will be very high to phenomenal over East-Central and adjoining West-Central Bay of Bengal on Friday and over West-Central and adjoining North-West Bay of Bengal and along and off the Odisha-Bengal coasts from Friday evening.

It would be rough to very rough over North Bay of Bengal on Friday and Saturday morning and very high to phenomenal on Sunday morning.

Fishermen warning

The IMD has advised total suspension of fishing operations over the North Andaman Sea until Friday and over the adjoining areas of South-East and East-Central Bay of Bengal till Thursday.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into East-Central Bay of Bengal on Wednesday and Thursday; over East-Central and adjoining West-Central Bay of Bengal on Friday and Sunday; and over North Bay of Bengal along and off the Odisha-Bengal coasts from Friday.

A detailed outlook and warning relating to developments in both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal are available here .

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