Drought seen impacting kharif pulses

After languishing for almost two years, the prices of pulses such as tur/arhar and urad have rebounded over the past few weeks as production has been impacted by scanty rains in the key growing regions of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat. Over the past two-three weeks, the prices of tur, moong, gram and urad have risen by 10-20 per cent in various markets such as Kalburgi, Akola and Indore, among others.

The scanty monsoon, which has created a drought in parts of Maharasthra, Karnataka and Gujarat, has impacted the standing tur crop while hurting the prospects for chana, as the progress in sowing of the rabi pulse crop has been tardy. Traders and growers estimate that the tur crop, which is currently in the flowering and seed formation stages, could be lower by as high as 50 per cent over last year’s levels in several areas of these States.

“More than 60 per cent of the tur crop has been impacted by the poor rains,” said Basavaraj Ingin, President of the Karnataka Tur Growers Association in Gulbarga. The government should immediately start compensating the farmers, Ingin said, adding that the prospects for sowing of chana are also bleak as there has been no rain for several weeks now.

Similarly, in neighbouring Maharashtra, which has declared a drought in several districts, the standing tur crop has been impacted. “The situation is very bad for all crops, including tur,” said Pasha Patel, chairman of the Maharashtra Agricultural Prices Commission.

The South West Monsoon saw a 9 per cent deficit across the country, while it was 22 per cent in Marathawada, 8 per cent in Vidarbha and 29 per cent in North Interior Karnataka, the main pulse-growing regions. Maharashtra has declared drought in 150 tehsils and Karnataka in 100 taluks.

Maharashtra and Karnataka account for close to 40 per cent of the country’s tur output, which had touched an all-time high of 4.87 million tonnes in 2016-17 and came down to 4.25 million tonnes in 2017-18. As per the first advance estimates projected by the Agriculture Ministry in late September, tur production is seen coming down further to 4.08 million tonnes.

Drought impact

However, with majority of the growing areas not witnessing any rainfall for close to two months now, the output may see a further decline with trade sources estimating it at around 3.5 million tonnes. The new crop arrivals will begin after December 15.

“Tur prices are unlikely to come down from these levels and hover around MSP levels when the new crop hits the markets next month” said Mahesh Langar, a dal miller in Kalburgi.

The price of tur, which hovered around ₹3,500-3,600 per quintal in mid-October, is now hovering around the ₹4,500 level. Similarly, urad and chana, which hovered around ₹4,000 levels, have now moved up to the ₹5,000 level.

“The price rise would have been much faster, but for stocks with NAFED, which has been ensuring supplies into the market” said Sujay Hubli, a pulses processor in Gadag. Millers are now looking at the stocks sold by NAFED to meet their demand. The delay in arrival of the North East monsoon has also triggered demand from Andhra Pradesh for gram, thereby influencing the prices.

Also the stock pipeline with the trade has been at lower levels as pulses have been bearish for the past two years. The trade believes that the prospects of lower crop and empty supply pipeline will boost price sentiment in coming days.

“The tur prices had touched a multi-year low, which hurt farmers’ sentiments for the crop. The procurement at MSP rate was minuscule, which didn't cover a large section of farmers. Hence, they were forced to sell in the open market at price of ₹3,600 a quintal. Now that the sowing has declined and with the entire supply pipeline being empty, prices will be at a bull-run due to the lower crop outlook,” said Jayeshbhai Mehta of Shivling Tur dal in Vasad.

Tur sowing in Gujarat has fallen to 2,55,655 hectares, down 6 per cent from 2,72,800 hectares reported last year. Even as the water availability situation is relatively better in the major growing regions of South Gujarat and Central Gujarat, farmers were discouraged to take up tur sowing due to lower realisation from the crop last year.

Notably, MSP for Tur was hiked from ₹5,450 last year to ₹5,675 a quintal this year.

In its first advance estimate, Gujarat has estimated 314000 tonnes of tur output for 2018-19, down about 7 per cent from 337000 tonnes projected in the fourth advance estimate for 2017-18.

“There is a major impact on the crop mainly in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat. We see the crop to be lower at about 35 lakh tonnes, which will be in addition to about 8 lakh tonnes of tur stored in Nafed warehouses across the country. Since the entire supply chain is empty, we expect prices to start lifting soon,” said Mehta.

Urad decline

Also, Gujarat is set to witness lower urad crop this kharif season owing to reduced acreage following water shortage due to weak rains, which have been lower by 23 per cent. The total area under urad for the kharif season in the State has shrunk by about 17 per cent to 107,400 hectares as against 130,000 hectares reported last year.

The first advance estimate for the year 2018-19 kharif crop released by the Gujarat government indicates lower urad output at about 75,000 tonnes, down by about 20 per cent from 93,000 tonnes estimated in the fourth advance estimate for kharif 2017-18.

According to farmer sources, the arrivals have already started at the market places with prices quoting in the range of ₹3,750-5,880 at most places, while in some markets the prices have also touched ₹6,150 a quintal. Notably, the minimum support price (MSP) announced for the year 2018-19 season is ₹5,600 a quintal.

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