A fresh low-pressure area is expected to develop over north Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal Bangladesh and West Bengal around Monday. A preparatory cyclonic circulation will pop up over the region the previous day (Sunday). This became apparent after an existing low-pressure area over Odisha and adjoining plains of West Bengal weakened on Friday. 

Shifting fortunes 

The shifting fortunes of monsoon unfolded through Friday after existing ‘low’ stalled on Friday) morning, with a trough from south-east Arabian Sea to Odisha across south Gujarat; northern Madhya Maharashtra; Vidarbha; and Chhattisgarh merging with a larger trough from south-west Rajasthan to Bangladesh across East Rajasthan; north Madhya Pradesh; north Jharkhand; and West Bengal.

Monsoon trough prospects 

The existing ‘low’ will now yield place to emerging successor over north Bay of Bengal, effectively bending the eastern end of the east-west trough, in all likelihood proxy for the crucial monsoon trough, to dip into the Bay waters. This would lend better credibility, stability and sustenance for the trough, considered the backbone of the seasonal rainfall system. 

The northern limit of the monsoon has stalled further over North India, and could likely get a further move on once the monsoon trough forms, which would go on to ensure its arrival into Delhi around the normal time of June 30 as well as extend reach to entire country in next 2-3 days, at least a week ahead of normal, India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated.

To stay active 

The IMD confirmed prospects of emerging monsoon trough, and said it would be active and near its normal position during most days of next week (July 3 to 10). As a result, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls likely over many parts of North-West, Central, East and North-East India during many days of the week and below normal over South Peninsula.

Weak rain for South

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is also likely along the West Coast during the week. Overall, rainfall activity is expected to be above normal over most parts of central India; normal to above normal over many parts of north-West India, including along the Himalayas. It will be near normal over most parts of East and North-East India.

Prospects for July

Climate Forecast System of the US said emerging conditions over the northern parts of India are favourable for sustaining above-normal rainfall until mid-July, before the monsoon pauses take a breath. Normal rain is likely for country as a whole for rest of July, rainiest of all four monsoon months, with a shortfall over Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Konkan and Mumbai during second half.

Triggers heavy rain 

Despite tantrums, the ‘low’ over Odisha and West Bengal brought extremely heavy rain over Assam and Meghalaya overnight on Friday morning. Heavy to very heavy rain lashed Odisha; Himachal Pradesh; East Rajasthan; West Madhya Pradesh; eastern Gujarat; Saurashtra and Kutch; Vidarbha; Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal; South Interior Karnataka; and Kerala and Mahe.

Surpasses June estimates 

Heavy rain lashed hills of West Bengal and Sikkim; Jharkhand; Uttarakhand; Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi; Punjab; West Rajasthan; East Madhya Pradesh; Konkan and Goa; Madhya Maharashtra; Chhattisgarh and Coastal Karnataka. Overall rainfall for country as a whole remained at 9 per cent, surpassing IMD estimates for June, though masking major deficits across individual met subdivisions. This explained why any monsoon need not ensure equitable distribution of rainfall across spatial and temporal scales.

Published on June 27, 2025