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The very severe cyclone Nilofar has started weakening even before changing track towards the Gujarat coast.
The European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts finds the storm dying out over the sea over the next couple of days. India Met Department sees it crossing the coast as a minimal cyclone.
Peaks overEarlier in the morning, Nilofar had peaked to wind speeds of up to 210 km/hr gusting to 220 km/hr. This had beaten predecessor Hudhud that ravaged the Visakhapatnam coast on October 12.
According to India Met, the landfall is expected to take place on Friday night/Saturday morning with wind speeds dramatically winding down to 80-90 km/hr with gusts of 100 km/hr.
By Wednesday noon, the storm was located to 860 km south-southwest of Naliya in Gujarat and 380 km east-southeast of Masirah Island of Oman.
Nilofar storm would start changing course away from Masirah by Thursday morning, first to north-northeast and then north-east.
Westerly influenceThis would be overseen by a passing western disturbance. Originating in the Mediterranean, western disturbances travel periodically across the Arabian Gulf, Afghanistan and Pakistan into north-west India.
Nilofar happened to cross the path of one such, and would be pummelled into submission by the westerly system and dragged along.
Thus, it would be guided to Gujarat by Friday night/Saturday morning, and a remnant would roll into east Rajasthan and south-west Uttar Pradesh, dropping showers along the way.
Meanwhile in the south, the Bay of Bengal is promising to spin up a low-pressure area during the next few days even as Nilofar re-orients itself towards Gujarat.
‘Low’ in bayThe ‘low’ would mature by November 5 and intensify a round before landing up over Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Odisha coast three days later.
The system will cut open a trough along the east coast towards Kanyakumari, encircling the peninsular tip and covering adjoining Sri Lanka before extending north along India’s west coast.
It is likely that a potent circulation builds within the trough over Sri Lanka, according to the European agency’s outlook valid until November 8.
Presence of the trough around the peninsula topped up with ‘low’ off Andhra Pradesh and over Sri Lanka should bring rain of varying intensity to India’s peninsular coasts.
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