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Vinson Kurian
The North-East monsoon circulation pattern has established over South Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka but it would take a few more days for seasonal rains to commence over the Tamil Nadu coast.
An India Met Department (IMD) update on Thursday said that the pattern is likely to strengthen leading to the commencement of the rains over South-East Peninsular India (Tamil Nadu) over the next five days.
Poor circulation
The immediate cause for the delay seems to be the structure of a circulation over the South-West Bay that has failed to evolve fully to receive the flows from super typhoon ‘Yutu’ in the North-West Pacific.
A rain head arriving from it may enter the Bay a couple of days later but would be guided towards the Odisha coast, much like very severe cyclone ‘Titli’ had done last week.
In fact, the IMD has pointed to the formation of a low-pressure area over the West-Central and adjoining North-West Bay of Bengal around October 29 (Monday).
An outlook valid for three days from Tuesday (October 30) said that fairly widespread to widespread rain may lash Tamil Nadu and Puducherry while being scattered to fairly widespread over Kerala and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
Cyclone ‘Titli’s track
Isolated rainfall likely over Coastal Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, and the rest of the North-eastern States, resembling distribution of rainfall from ‘Titli.’
Latest forecasts indicate that the super typhoon may move west and hit the northern tip of the Philippines and enter the South China Sea by November 1, which is a good augury for the North-East monsoon.
A bulk of the easterly flows would be built around it until starts to weaken from November 1, when the rest start flowing in to feed the North-East monsoon.
The US Climate Prediction Centre has predicted above normal rainfall for the Bay during the ongoing week (October 24 to 30) but the intensity is shown to be lacking over the South Peninsula.
Rains to scale up
Widespread heavy precipitation associated with super typhoon ‘Yutu’ is forecast for the North-West Pacific, and associated enhanced precipitation favoured across the Bay, it said in a detailed forecast.
Additionally, the disturbance over the Bay may bring widespread precipitation to Sri Lanka and areas to the North-East (North Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coasts) but the potential for storm genesis is low.
Several models have depicted a potential formation somewhere over the Arabian Sea as well, but the number of ensemble members developing a cyclone have decreased over the past couple of days.
The cyclonic circulation over Gulf of Mannar and neighbourhood extending persisted on Thursday. A trough originates from it and runs up to link with South Madhya Maharashtra across Interior Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.
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