For those who take a very grim view of India’s population of 1.46 billion (having overshot China in April 2023 to be the world’s most populous nation), here’s some heartening news. According to the UN State of the World Population Report 2025 (SOWP), India’s total fertility rate (TFR), or the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime, has fallen to 1.9, or below replacement level of 2.1 – which is the level of births needed to keep a population stable from one generation to the next. This does not mean that India’s numbers will fall off a cliff. Our population will peak at 1.7 billion in four decades from now before declining.

Despite a decline in TFR, the population will rise for a while on account of a large young population and longer life expectancy. India will report higher numbers when the rest of the world, including China, combats declining fertility rates and ageing populations. It is hard to say, though, whether this is a ‘dividend’ or a disadvantage. With 68 per cent of its population in the 15-64 age group, India can only aspire to fill the labour gap for the rest of the world if its workforce is equipped to do so. There is also the fear of automation swallowing jobs across the board. While our large youth needs to be skilled to keep the country going, there is another goal to be pursued — the potential to reduce TFR in States which are at above replacement level, namely, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya, Jharkhand and Manipur.

The SOWP 2025 report underscores that India has managed a demographic transition through an improvement in health, education, life expectancy, maternal mortality, gender empowerment (control over fertility decisions and use of birth control methods) and economic well being, and this has percolated to States that had high fertility rates in the past. Now, to close the gap between islands of high fertility and the rest of the country, decentralised initiatives are called for. There is enough research, including that based on Census 2011 and earlier years and the National Family Health Survey-5, to show that inclusive development is the best contraceptive. Indeed, it is hard to imagine a national population policy when India’s demographic map is so diverse. The southern States, in fact, have to contend with ageing populations that are well above the national average of 7 per cent.

The SOWP report shows through its global survey of 14,000 respondents that ‘the real fertility crisis’ (the title of the report) is a multi-layered one. In what is now a global issue, a large number reported an unfulfilled desire to have a child, even as unwanted pregnancies are the biggest headache. In India’s case, as many as 30 per cent reported an unfulfilled desire to have a child, while unintended pregnancies were 37 per cent. The former, the report points out, is clearly linked to uncertainty, particularly economic, about the future. The fertility crisis remains one of women’s agency, and that’s changing.

Published on June 16, 2025