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The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) suggests that cyclone ‘Hudhud’ in the west-central Bay of Bengal has intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm.
The JTWC update made available at 2.30 pm indicated that the wind speeds have crossed the threshold of 120 km/hr (as per India Met classification) to make the grade.
PEAK WIND SPEEDS
India Met located ‘Hudhud’ to 530 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 570 km south-southeast of Gopalpur at 11.30 am.
The very severe cyclonic storm is more than a day from making a landfall near Visakhapatnam on Sunday morning.
Meanwhile, the US Centre has lowered the peak wind speeds expected ahead of landfall to 194 km/hr.
It had initially projected 213 km/hr and revised it later to slightly lower to 203 km/hr.
India Met Department has consistently stuck to its projection of a maximum of 140 km/hr gusting to 155 km/hr from Saturday evening.
CRUCIAL FACTOR
Earlier this morning, the Met had said in its update at 11.30 am that the severe cyclone was on course to intensify to the next level.
A crucial external factor that decides the fate of a cyclone approaching landfall over the east cost of India is passing western disturbances across northwest India.
Westerly to northwesterly winds from these low-pressure atmospheric waves have in the past steered cyclones away from India’s coast, sparing it a direct hit.
This time too, arrival of a western disturbance is forecast – in fact a strong one – but it would troop in to northwest India after ‘Hudhud’ is well and truly home.
INTERACTIVE RAIN
What the disturbance promises to do instead is, dip down to extend a grip over ‘Hudhud’ even as its outer bands start caressing the Vizag coast around midnight tomorrow.
The cyclone is expected to cross the coast by the next morning, and would be firmly under the influence of the overarching western disturbance by then.
This opens up the possibility of interaction between a northeast monsoon (yet to be declared) cyclonic system and a western disturbance and heavy rain.
Global model outlook suggests widespread rain for the entire eastern half of the country as the western disturbance moving east with the ‘Hudhud’ remnant in tow.
WEATHER WARNING
The wet spell could extend to central and east Madhya Pradesh; Chhattisgarh; Jharkhand; Uttar Pradesh; Bihar; and even Uttarkhand.
Warnings related to heavy to very heavy rainfall, high winds, storm surge, and ‘rough-to-very rough-to-phenomenal’ sea conditions continue to apply variously to the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts from tomorrow morning.
Low-lying areas of east Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram, and Srikakulam districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh are expected to get inundated.
Extensive damage could happen to kutcha houses; power and communication lines could be partially disrupted; and rail and road traffic remain affected.
There is a potential threat from flying debris. Escape routes could also get flooded.
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