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Arabian Sea Cyclone Nilofar is now a very severe cyclone, only one step away from class-topping super cyclone status, an India Met update said this afternoon.
But all available indications suggest that Nilofar will wind down to severe cyclone status due to a combination of adverse factors.
PEAK WINDS
Westerly winds associated with the western disturbance that steers Nilofar towards Naliya in Gujarat would be the primary culprit for the weakening.
Since Nilofar will hitch a ride on the westerly system, it would get directly impacted from the top as opposing winds tear into it.
A second reason is dry air intrusion from around the land – the cyclone would be in close proximity to mainland Pakistan and western India as it runs in.
Third are the cooler waters towards the north Gujarat coast, which caps evaporation and moisture build that is needed to fuel the cyclone system.
YELLOW MESSAGE
The Met located Nilofar to 1,170 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 1,230 km south-southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) at 1.30 pm.
In a ‘yellow message’ (warning), the Met said that the coastal districts of Saurashtra and Kutch would receive rainfall at most places from Thursday morning.
Isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also commence along these areas around the same time.
The rainfall intensity would increase gradually with heavy to very heavy fall at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls from later in the night.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-to 55 km/hr and gusting to 65 km/hr would commence along and off Gujarat coast from Thursday morning.
SEA CONDITION
They would ramp up to between 100- and 110 km/hr with gusts of 125 km/hr at the time of landfall.
Sea condition along and off Gujarat coast will be ‘rough’ (13 ft in height) to ‘very rough’ (13- to 20 ft) from Thursday.
It would become ‘very high’ (30- to 46 ft) to ‘phenomenal’ (46 ft) from the afternoon.
Fishermen out at sea along and off Gujarat coast have been advised to return to the coast. The Met also notified suspension of fishing operations.
Coastal hutment dwellers should be moved to safer places. People in the affected areas should keep indoors.
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