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India Met Department has issued a pre-cyclone watch for north Gujarat as Cyclone Nilofar took birth in the west-central and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea.
The cyclone was more or less unchanged from its location from morning at 1,270 km west-southwest of Mumbai, an afternoon update by the Met said.
Landfall timeline It was at least two days away from landfall over northwest Gujarat and adjoining Karachi in Pakistan, according to international models.
Nilofar (a name contributed by Pakistan) would intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm, but not as strong as predecessor Hudhud that rammed the coast of Visakhapatnam earlier this month.
India Met expects Nilofar to pack peak winds reaching speeds of 120- to 130 km/hr gusting to 145 km/hr.
In contrast, Hudhud had featured ferocious winds topping 175 km/her and gusting to 200 km/hr.
The landfall is expected to take place by Thursday/Friday, according to initial projections.
In its outlook, the US Naval Observatory too had said that the cyclone may not ratchet up to the strength originally estimated, and could feature peak wind speeds of 138 km/hr.
System Strength The building cyclone is now practically stationary and will take some time to move north-northwest but when it does, will drag itself into the way of a western disturbance. Transiting across the Arabian Gulf, the westerly system will scoop the cyclonic system by the collar and haul it towards the Indo-Pak coast where it will be deposited. As the cyclone approaches the coast, intrusion of dry air from land and increase in vertical wind shear (sudden change in wind speed and direction with height) will affect the storm structure and strength.
Also, sea-surface temperatures near the Indo-Pak coast were 27.8 deg Celsius compared to those of the coastal Oman waters which had warmed up to 28.8 deg Celsius. Warmer waters help evaporation, which helps rising water vapour to rise up the storm tower, condense and add to thunder cloud formation which adds to system strength.
The system weakens when the waters cool down and allow for evaporation to take place on a lesser scale only.
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