With exactly five days to go for the end of the season, the monsoon continues to show a seven per cent surplus, and if carried to a logical conclusion, the third best in the last four years. The monsoon withdrawal line remains stalled and could likely run further into roadblocks as the Bay of Bengal remains active with Pacific typhoon ‘Noru’ lending a helping hand.

As of Sunday (September 25), the sustained rain deficit over Uttar Pradesh has moderated with West Uttar Pradesh improving the numbers significantly to -25 per cent and East Uttar Pradesh to -31 per cent.

The rest of the deficits are in adjoining East India across Bihar (-30 per cent); West Bengal (-24 per cent); and Jharkhand (-21 per cent). In the North-East, Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura has come up with -27 per cent as the 2022 monsoon nears closure.

Monsoon withdrawal prospects

The monsoon withdrawal from Rajasthan and Gujarat may progress into Punjab, Delhi, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh until October 4 but would be beaten back during October 4-12 by rains pushing in from the Bay under the influence of a remnant of typhoon ‘Noru’ travelling in from Vietnam and the rest of Indochina, says an outlook from the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also hinted at the building buzz in the Bay replete with the formation of a cyclonic circulation or a low-pressure area during the first week of October. It could cross the Andhra Pradesh coast by October 6 and head inland into adjoining Maharashtra, IMD’s numerical model predictions said.

In fact, it has signalled the presence of a cyclonic circulation this (Monday) morning over the West-Central Bay, off the Andhra Pradesh coast.

Rains for Peninsular India

An extended IMD outlook until October 4 predicted scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rain over East, North-East and North Peninsular India. Isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall is likely over the rest of the country except parts of North-West and South Peninsular India.

On Monday morning, a western disturbance had crossed into North-West India tossing up a cyclonic circulation over Punjab. A trough originated from this circulation and extended to South-East Bihar across Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, capable of triggering rains under their watch.

East India too may benefit

The IMD has therefore forecasted fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls, thunderstorms and lightning for the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim on Tuesday and Wednesday; and plains of Bengal, Odisha, Bihar and Jharkhand on Friday.

A similar forecast is valid for Arunachal Pradesh today (Monday); and Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on both Monday and Tuesday (today and tomorrow).