Indian economy is estimated to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2022-23, FICCI’s latest Economic Outlook Survey has projected.

The findings of this survey showed that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could maintain policy rates at the current level in the upcoming monetary policy announcement on April 8. Also, the RBI is expected to begin the rate hike cycle in H2 2022. The central bank is expected to effect a rate hike of 50-75 basis points by the end of the fiscal year 2022-23.

Based on the responses of the participating economists, the median forecast for exports has been put at $434.4 billion and for imports at $669.4 billion in 2022-23.

The median fiscal deficit to GDP ratio has been put at 6.4 per cent for the fiscal year 2022-23--with a minimum and maximum range of 6.2 per cent and 6.4 per cent, respectively. 

On the global economic situation in light of the Russia Ukraine conflict, the participants opined that while it is difficult to assess the exact impact of the conflict on the global economy, much would depend on further continuation of the situation and the ensuing policy responses. 

The situation remains volatile, and the outlook is uncertain, with risks amplified to the downside. According to indicative estimates provided by the participants, global growth could slow down by 50-75 basis points -- further moderating post-recovery.

The demand is yet to move back to pre-pandemic levels, and any escalation in the conflict could further worsen the global economic situation. A relapse disrupts trade in supply-side leakages, and stress on already high global commodity prices has also aggravated.

Rising international commodity prices are the biggest risk emanating from the ongoing conflict, the survey showed. Nonetheless, the participants opined that global inflation is likely to peak out in the first half of 2022 and could moderate thereafter.

The easing in price levels in the second part of the year will be backed by a slowing in Chinese economy and overall slowdown in global growth momentum, waning pent up demand and monetary policy normalisation/rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, the Survey findings showed.