October inflation. Vegetable inflation surged to a 57 month-high of 42 per cent in October Murali Kumar K MURALI KUMAR K | Photo Credit: MURALI KUMAR K
India’s Inflation outlook for November 2024 live updates: Experts forecast a drop from October’s 6.2 per cent.
- 17:41 | December 12, 2024
Nov 2024 retail inflation live updates: Food inflation should start declining, hoping for for revival in consumption growth, says FICCI’s Agarwal
Food inflation is expected to come down to its normal level in the next two quarters, Agarwal said, adding that he is hopeful for a revival in consumption growth, aided by a good crop and increased spending by the government on the big-ticket infra projects and rural schemes in the December quarter. - PTI
- 17:40 | December 12, 2024
Nov. 2024 inflation live updates: ‘Green shoots’ visible on consumption front as food inflation has started receding, says FICCI President
“Green shoots” are visible on the consumption front as food inflation has started receding, newly appointed FICCI President Harsha V Agarwal - PTI
- 17:38 | December 12, 2024
November 2024 inflation updates live: Bond yields rise, shrug off inflation data
Bond yields mirror rise in US rates, shrug off softer local inflation - Bloomberg
- 17:32 | December 12, 2024
November 2024 retail inflation live updates: Slowing inflation gives elbow room for RBI to cut rates in 2025
Easing inflation may provide some elbow room to the new central bank chief, Sanjay Malhotra, to address growth concerns. The Reserve Bank of India has kept interest rates unchanged for almost two years now, but analysts expect Malhotra to take a softer approach to monetary policy and begin easing early next year. - Bloomberg
- 16:44 | December 12, 2024
Nov 2024 retail inflation live updates: Potato, garlic lead the spike
top five items showing highest year on year Inflation at All India level in November 2024 are garlic (85.14%), potato (66.65), cauliflower (47.70), cabbage (43.58) and coconut oil (42.13). The key items having lowest year on year inflation in November are jeera (-35.04), ginger (-16.96), LPG-excluding conveyance (-10.24) and dry chillies (-9.73%).
- 16:42 | December 12, 2024
Nov. 2024 retail inflation live updates: See-saw trend in inflation
A government statement said that it could be observed that after December 2023, inflation rate for both CPI (General) and CFPI were declining, reaching their lowest point in July 2024. However, from August, 2024 to October, 2024, an increasing trend was observed. Thereafter, in November, 2024 inflation has again declined. The decline in inflation in November 2024 is mainly due to dip in inflation in “food & beverages” group, it said.
- 16:41 | December 12, 2024
Nov 2024 retail inflation Live updates: Dip in food and beverage group led to retail inflation softening
Decline in food and beverage group led to retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) softened to 5.48 per cent in November compared with 6.2 per cent in October.
- 16:05 | December 12, 2024
November Inflation Live Updates: November Consumer inflation at 5.48% after touching 6.2% for October Index of Industrial production rises 3.5% in October 2024
- 15:00 | December 12, 2024
Nov 2024 inflation prediction live updates: Core inflation staying benign, says Ind-Ra
The core inflation (which excludes food & beverages and fuel & light) stood at 3.7% in October 2024. This has secularly declined from 6.1% in February 2023 when MPC had hiked the policy rates last time. The segment which gets critically impacted by the policy actions of the central bank is core-core (excluding petrol, diesel and other related items from core segment). In October 2024, the core-core inflation stood at a 10-month high of 3.9%, marginally lower than the RBI target, but much lower than the upper tolerance band of 6%. Furthermore, this has fallen considerably from the high of 7.7% in February 2023 and is reflective of the arduous journey of the MPC’s disinflationary stance.
- 14:59 | December 12, 2024
Nov 2024 inflation prediction live updates: Recent spike in retail inflation has been almost entirely due to vegetables, says Ind-Ra
The spike in retail inflation has been almost entirely due to vegetables. Vegetables inflation has been moving in high double-digits (average of 25.9% during November 2023-October 2024), thereby lifting up the retail inflation. In fact, retail inflation excluding vegetable and pulses was at 3.5% in October 2024. Although it was at a 10-month high, it indicates that broader economic conditions are not inflationary as such. A glance at the structure of inflation also gives a similar picture with only 40% of items having inflation above 4% (August 2022: 79.0%).
- 13:23 | December 12, 2024
November 2024 retail inflation live updates: Rabi sowing key to inflation, says Ind-Ra
The favourable progress of rabi sowing becomes critical for retail inflation (given that food inflation has been the leading driver in the recent time). This, along with the subdued trend in inflation of majority of the items, is expected to help the headline retail inflation head closer to 4% from end-FY25”, says Paras Jasrai, Senior Analyst, Ind-Ra.
- 12:50 | December 12, 2024
November 2024 consumer inflation latest updates: Expect 25 bps cut in Feb, says India Ratings
“The monetary policy is forward looking. If by February 2025, the RBI analysis suggests that the inflation, which it expects to decline to 4.0% in 2QFY26, would remain around 4.0% beyond 2QFY26, we may see the central bank acting on the policy rates by reducing it by 25bp in February 2025.
- 11:47 | December 12, 2024
Nov 2024 CPI Inflation Live Updates: Inflation will average at 5.6% in Oct-Dec 2024 and 5% in Jan-March 2025, says India Ratings
Ind-Ra expects the inflation to average at 5.6% and 5.0% in 3QFY25 and 4QFY25, respectively.
- 11:36 | December 12, 2024
Nov. 2024 CPI inflation live updates: Limited room for MPC to cut rates, says Axis Bank in research note
Schemes announced thus far add about 1.5% to demand. “As more States (say Bihar in 2025 and UP in 2026) launch such schemes, there could be a further boost. With around 3-4% annual increase over the past decade, this means nearly half a year worth of additional demand. It could take a few quarters for supply to respond adequately, limiting room for the MPC to cut rates.”
- 11:35 | December 12, 2024
Nov 2024 retail inflation prediction Live: Can income transfer scheme keep food inflation alive for longer, asks Axis Bank in its research note for 2025
Since July, when Maharashtra became the 10th State to start income transfer schemes, four more States have announced them, taking the count to 14 with an annualised spend of about ₹2 lakh crore (0.6% of GDP), benefitting 134 million women. The fiscal space for this is mostly being created out of expenditure switching (link). Household spending data shows a 7-45% boost in the target segments, and a meaningful part of it is likely to be on food in our view.
- 11:22 | December 12, 2024
Nov 2024 consumer inflation live updates: Output volatility higher in pulses
Volatility of output is much higher in pulses, as sown area under pulses is often not irrigated, and therefore more dependent on rainfall. Over the past several years price volatility has been contained by an increase in warehousing by the government and supply diversification(earlier ex-India supplies were limited to Madagascar and Myanmar, which are also affected by the south-west monsoon; now pulses also come from Canada and Australia).
- 11:18 | December 12, 2024
Nov. 2024 consumer inflation live updates: Cereals have lowest volatility, notes Axis Bank in its research report
Among major food items, cereals have the lowest volatility in production volumes and prices. Due to the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) being enforced via governmentprocurement, acreage allocation does not change much, and output volatility is mainly dueto weather affecting yields.
- 11:15 | December 12, 2024
Nov. 2024 consumer inflation live updates: Veggie prices at cyclical high, notes Axis Bank in its research note
Relative to food, vegetable prices are at a cyclical high, indicating that either other food prices rise going forward, or vegetable prices are likely to fall. This volatility is primarily due to inflexibility in supply – it is harder for farmers to shift acreage in the absence of sufficient market access unless prices remain high for an extended period.
- 11:14 | December 12, 2024
Nov, 2024 retail inflation Live updates: Question for inflation forecasters is whether food falls to core or core rises higher, according to Axis Bank in a research note
- 11:11 | December 12, 2024
November 2024 Inflation Live Updates: Headline and core prices tend to move together over time, says Axis Bank in its research note on outlook for 2025
The significant and persistent divergence between food and core inflation in the past two years has brought back the debate on whether the MPC’s target of headline inflation is appropriate. Until the law changes, the debate is inconsequential. However, we note that while core and food inflation trends may diverge over short time periods, of say a few quarters, over longer periods, like a few years, they move together. Between 2011 and 2024, for example, food and core indices rose 125% and 120% respectively, with annualised inflation rates of 6.08% and 5.90%, a difference of just 17bps. Given that relative weights in the consumption basket can shift over time, this is understandable.
- 11:01 | December 12, 2024
November Retail Inflation Live Updates: Axis Bank in its research note on 2025 outlook
India inflation driven by food; limited respite visible in the near term.We expect inflation to average 4.5% in FY26E, coming close to 4% only for a short period. In Dec’24, the Monetary Policy Committee has pushed inflation projections the next two quarters higher by 30 bps each. The MPC’s expectation that inflation will hit 4% in Q2FY26Eand remain anchored is, in our view, dependent on favourable weather conditions and a strong supply response to meet the demand deficit. In addition, imports of several commodities would need to be relaxed. We expect headline inflation to remain high, averaging at 4.5% in FY26E.Due to base effects, it is likely to get close to 4% in Oct but otherwise stay above the mid-point of the target range, limiting the room to cut rates.
- 10:45 | December 12, 2024
November Retail Inflation Expectation Live Updates: Indian shares flat as caution ahead of inflation data dulls IT rally - Reuters
- 09:41 | December 12, 2024
Inflation November 2024 Live updates: Inflation likely to ease to 5.4% in November on decline in vegetable prices: Union Bank
India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to ease to 5.4 per cent in November 2024, down from 6.2 per cent in October, according to a report by Union Bank of India.
The decline is primarily attributed to a seasonal drop in vegetable prices, which surged significantly in the previous months. The report highlighted that vegetable prices, a major contributor to the CPI spike in October, showed a substantial decline in November.
- 08:48 | December 12, 2024
Inflation insights: RBI’s inflation focus
With inflationary pressures continuing and growth losing momentum, the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had a challenging task in hand. The MPC chose a cautious approach and with continued focus on inflation, maintained a status quo on policy interest rates and the stance.
- 08:03 | December 12, 2024
India inflation outlook live updates: November CPI expected to drop below 6% after October’s 6.2% surge
Retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is likely to have eased between 5.4 per cent and 5.8 per cent in November. The National Statistical Office will officially make the data public on December 12 at 4 p.m. Retail inflation surged to 6.2 per cent in October. Experts believe that the rate has peaked and is expected to come down because of some reduction in vegetable prices and also better sowing of Rabi crops.
- 08:02 | December 12, 2024
Inflation news live updates: Managing inflation gets precedence over growth
It is clear that price stability and liquidity management got precedence over economic growth in the Monetary Policy Committee resolution of December 6, 2024, and attendant statements from the RBI. Even though real growth measured in terms of GDP at constant prices has slowed substantially in Q2 of 2024-25 to 5.4 per cent as against 8.1 per cent in Q2 of 2023-24, the MPC has refrained from a policy repo rate cut with a 4:2 voting by the members. In the words of the outgoing RBI Governor: “… only with durable price stability can a strong foundation be secured for high growth.”
Published on December 12, 2024
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