Population living with diabetes worldwide, currently half a billion, is projected to more than double to 1.3 billion in the next 30 years with every country expected to see an increase, according to a new analysis published in The Lancet.

"The rapid rate at which diabetes is growing is not only alarming but also challenging for every health system in the world, especially given how the disease also increases the risk for ischemic heart disease and stroke," said Liane Ong, lead author and Lead Research Scientist at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington's School of Medicine, US.

Almost all global cases, 96 per cent, are type 2 diabetes (T2D), the researchers said, who used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study and examined the prevalence, morbidity, and mortality of diabetes for 204 countries and territories by age and sex between 1990 and 2021 and forecasted diabetes prevalence to 2050.

The latest and most comprehensive calculations showed the current global prevalence rate to be 6.1 per cent, making diabetes one of the top 10 leading causes of death and disability, the analysis said.

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At the regional level, the study found the rate to be the highest in North Africa and the Middle East at 9.3 per cent, which is expected to rise to 16.8 per cent by 2050 and to 11.3 per cent in Latin America and the Caribbean.

The researchers also found diabetes to be especially evident in people 65 and older in every country, registering a global prevalence rate of more than 20 per cent for that demographic. Regionally, North Africa and the Middle East had the highest rate at 39.4 per cent in this age group, while Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia had the lowest rate at 19.8 per cent.

All 16 risk factors studied were associated with T2D, the researchers said, with high BMI being the primary risk for T2D and accounting for 52.2 per cent of T2D disability and mortality. Dietary risks, environmental/occupational risks, tobacco use, low physical activity, and alcohol use were other important risk factors.

"While the general public might believe that T2D is simply associated with obesity, lack of exercise, and a poor diet, preventing and controlling diabetes is quite complex due to a number of factors. That includes someone's genetics, as well as logistical, social, and financial barriers within a country's structural system, especially in low- and middle-income countries," said Ong.

"Some people might be quick to focus on one or a few risk factors, but that approach doesn't take into account the conditions in which people are born and live that create disparities worldwide," said Lauryn Stafford, second author and Post-Bachelor Fellow at IHME.

"Those inequities ultimately impact people's access to screening and treatment and the availability of health services. That's precisely why we need a more complete picture of how diabetes has been impacting populations at a granular level," said Stafford.

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