Back-to-back lows to keep monsoon roaring over North India

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on August 29, 2019

An IMD outlook for today said that heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places. File Photo   -  The Hindu

First low pressure in the series to form by Thursday night

Back-to-back low-pressure areas being shot up from the Bay of Bengal from tonight (Thursday) into early next week (the first of September) will keep the monsoon in roaring form over almost the entire North India.

‘Low’s moving in one after the other need to be monitored for their exceptional rain-generating capacity and ensuing threat of flooding and landslides in the vulnerable areas, especially in North-East India.

First ‘low’ by tonight

The India Met Department (IMD) expects the first one in the series to form by tonight (Thursday) and the second by early next week, both byproducts of storms developing in the South China Sea, further to the East.

The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre said tropical storm (monsoon depression) ‘Podul’ is approaching Vietnam for landfall, and its remnant is heading straight West across Laos and Myanmar into the Bay of Bengal.

This remnant would get a fresh lease of life in the warm waters of the Bay and grow as a ‘low,’ triggering fresh rains over Odisha, the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala for the next three days.

The second ‘low’ is likely to develop over the North-East Bay and neighbourhood by Monday, bringing isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over South Odisha and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall has been forecast also over North-East India and with isolated heavy falls likely over Central and North-West India as well as along West Coast.

International models suggest this ‘low' intensifying into a monsoon depression and blowing up its contents in torrential rainfall over Rajasthan and adjoining Gujarat.

According to these models, the monsoon fury over North India may relent subsequently, with a new rain front opening off the coast of South Andhra Pradesh and North Tamil Nadu.

Parts of the rest of the East Coast (Odisha and Bengal) may also some activity, in what is a trend witnessed when monsoon weakens over the rest of the country, throwing open a window of fresh opportunity for Tamil Nadu.

Meanwhile, as of this (Thursday) morning, the land-based trough over North-West and Central India in which the monsoon flourishes, stays active across a North-West to South-East axis.

The trough passes through Bikaner, Jaipur, Tikamgarh, Ambikapur, Jamshedpur and Digha before dipping into the Bay, cutting across Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Bengal.

The trough draws sustenance from the East-to-West shear zone of monsoon turbulence lying above, allowing elbowroom for low’s/depressions to thrive and prosper.

The IMD said the western end of the trough may shift northwards from tomorrow (Friday), enhancing rainfall along the hills of North-West India and over the adjoining plains.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely over the same area during Saturday and Sunday, and may not offer much relent into the next week, too. An IMD outlook for today said that heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places over East Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Gujarat, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.

Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning may roll out at isolated places over Jharkhand and plains of Bengal. Strong winds with speeds reaching up to 55 km/hr may prevail over the West-Central and South-West Arabian Sea, East-Central Bay and along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas. As for tomorrow, heavy rainfall is likely over Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.

Strong winds with speeds reaching up to 55 km/hr may continue to prevail over West-Central and South-West Arabian Sea and off the Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

Published on August 29, 2019

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