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Extremely severe cyclone Maha may weaken at landfall over Gujarat coast

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on November 05, 2019 Published on November 04, 2019

Thunderstorm and lighting strike in suburban Mumbai after Cyclone Maha brings rain to the city. Photo: Paul Noronha   -  BusinessLine

Low-pressure develops over North Andaman Sea

The Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal will yet again reverberate with action simultaneously as a fresh low-pressure area developed over the North Andaman Sea (South-East Bay of Bengal) on Monday afternoon.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the low would intensify by daybreak tomorrow (Tuesday) into a well-marked low, and begin to move West-North-West towards India’s East Coast.

Depression in Bay

It may intensify into a monsoon depression over the East-Central Bay by Wednesday, just as the extremely severe cyclone Maha over East-Central Arabian Sea bears down over the Gujarat coast, but weakening to a cyclone.

This represents a climb-down from earlier forecasts that projected that Maha would approach the coast as a severe cyclone, packing the same intensity and power.

 

The IMD has maintained the outlook that the developing storm in the Bay may trigger widespread rain over North Andhra Pradesh and South and Coastal Odisha from Saturday. Squally winds with a speed of 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr may prevail over these coasts before increasing thereafter.

 

Wind warning

Gujarat, Daman, Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli: Squally winds with speeds reaching 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr may commence over the North-East Arabian Sea along and off the Gujarat coast from Wednesday morning. They may increase gradually, becoming 80-90 km/hr gusting to 100 km/hr along and off Junagarh, Gir Somnath, Diu and Amreli districts; and 60-80 kmp/hr gusting to 100 km/hr over Bhavnagar, Bharuch, Anand, Ahmedabad, Botad, Porbandar, Rajkot districts; 50- 60 km/hr gusting to 70 km/hr over Surat, Navsari, Valsad, Daman and Dadra & Nagar Haveli from Wednesday into early Thursday. It will decrease thereafter.

 

Maharashtra: Squally winds with speeds reaching 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr are likely along and off the Maharashtra coast from Wednesday morning; these may increase becoming 50-60 km/hr gusting to 70 km/hr from the same evening along and off Palghar and Thane districts into Thursday morning.

The Arabian Sea: Gale winds with speeds reaching 160-170 km/hr gusting to 190 km/hr were prevailing over the East-Central and adjoining West-Central Arabian Sea around the cyclone system centre.

This is very likely to increase gradually over the East-Central Arabian Sea, becoming 170-180 km/hr gusting to 200 km/hr over the West-Central and adjoining East-Central and North-West Arabian Sea by midnight on Monday and decreasing thereafter.

Sea conditions

Gujarat coast: Sea conditions will be rough to very rough (wave heights of 1-20 ft) along and off the Gujarat coast from Wednesday, becoming high (30 ft) from the same evening.

Maharashtra coast: Sea conditions will be rough to very rough along and off the North Maharashtra coast on Wednesday.

Arabian sea: Sea conditions will be phenomenal (above 46 ft waves) over the East-Central and the adjoining West-Central and North-West Arabian Sea till tomorrow (Tuesday) and will be very high (above 30 ft) on Wednesday.

Sea conditions will be high (above 20 ft) over the West-Central Arabian Sea from Tuesday evening and improve thereafter. They will be very high to high (46-30 ft)over the North-East Arabian Sea from today (Monday) to Wednesday.

Storm surge

Storm surges of 1 metre above the astronomical tide are likely to inundate low-lying areas of Bhavnagar district; 0.5–1.0 metre above the astronomical tide may inundate low-lying areas of Junagarh, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Surat, Bharuch, Anand, Ahmedabad, and Porbandar districts around the time of Maha's landfall.

Alert for fishermen

Fishermen have been advised to suspend all fishing operations till Wednesday. They are advised not to venture into the West-Central Arabian Sea till tomorrow (Tuesday) and into the East-Central and the adjoining North-East Arabian Sea till Wednesday. They have been told not venture into the sea along and off the Gujarat coast and adjoining North Maharashtra coast from Tuesday to Thursday evening. All fishermen currently out at sea are advised to return to shore.

Damage is expected over the coastal districts of Gujarat (Junagarh, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bhavnagar, Surat, Bharuch, Anand, Ahmedabad, Botad, Porbandar, Rajkot) and Daman, Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli. Damage may take place to thatched houses/huts. Thatched rooftops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly.

Damage to embankments/salt pans may take place. Partial damage to power and communication lines may happen. Major damage to kutcha and some damage to pucca roads and flooding of escape routes may take place.

Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of trees. Damage to banana and papaya trees. Dead limbs blown from trees. Major damage to coastal crops.

Action suggested for the Gujarat coast

(Junagadh, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bhavnagar, Surat, Bharuch, Anand, Ahmedabad, Botad, Porbandar, Rajkot) and Daman, Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli:

Total suspension of fishing operations till Wednesday. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors. Movement in motor boats unsafe.

Published on November 04, 2019
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