Severe cyclone Maha to cross Gujarat coast by Wednesday night: IMD

Severe cyclone 'Maha' is forecast to re-curve and take U-turn out in the East-Central Arabian Sea and head towards the Gujarat coast between Diu and Dwarka around midnight on November 6.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) located the severe cyclone about 550 km West-South-West of Veraval (Gujarat) and 580 km West-South-West of Diu on Sunday morning.

Source: IMD

It is very likely to intensify into a very severe cyclone later in the evening, and continue to move in a West-North-West direction till Monday, before beginning to re-curve (i.e. make a U-turn) East-North-East.

This would orient it towards the Gujarat coast, but the very severe cyclone would also start weakening gradually from November 5 (Monday) onwards, as it encounters cooler waters near the coast. Cooler waters interfere with the process of evaporation and convection (cloud-building around the storm), the fuel for the cyclone system, compromising its strength and intensity.

"Severe cyclone Maha should cross the Gujarat coast between Diu and Dwarka, and pack maximum sustained wind speeds of 100-110 km/hr gusting to 120 km/hr," the IMD said.

It has has forecast light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over Saurashtra and Gujarat on Wednesday and Thursday. Light to moderate rainfall is also forecast at most places with isolated heavy rainfall very likely over North Madhya Maharashtra and North Konkan, including Mumbai on these days.

The IMD's forecast track and intensity for severe cyclone Maha is as follows:

Source: IMD website

The Weather Company, an IBM Business, more or less concurs, as seen below

Source: The Weather Company

Wind warnings

Gujarat coast: Squally winds with speeds reaching 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr may commence over the North-East Arabian Sea along and off the Gujarat coast from Wednesday morning. These may escalate gradually becoming 100-110 km/hr gusting to 120 km/hr from Wednesday evening until the Thursday morning.

Maharashtra coast: Squally winds with speeds reaching 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr are likely along and off the Maharashtra coast from Wednesday morning. These may pick up further speed becoming 50-60 km/hr gusting to 70 km/hr from the evening until Thursday morning.

Gale winds with speeds reaching 110-120 km/hr gusting to 130 km/hr are currently prevailing over the East-Central Arabian Sea around the severe cyclone system centre.

The severe cyclone Maha track projected by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre is as follows:

Source: Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

The wind speeds are likely to increase gradually over the East-Central Arabian Sea becoming 160-170 km/hr gusting to 185 km/hr over the East-Central and adjoining West-Central and North-East Arabian Sea by Monday.

Sea conditions

Sea conditions will be rough to very rough (wave heights of 13- 20 ft) along and off the Gujarat-coast from Wednesday morning, becoming high to very high (30-46 ft) from the same evening.

They will be rough to very rough along and off the north Maharashtra coast on Wednesday. They will be very high (up to 46 ft) over the East-Central Arabian Sea for the next six hours and will become phenomenal (above 46 ft) thereafter for the subsequent three days.

Sea conditions will be high to phenomenal (30-46 ft) over the West-Central Arabian Sea from Sunday to Wednesday and over the North-East Arabian Sea from Monday to Wednesday.

Alert for fishermen

Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the West-Central Arabian Sea till Tuesday, and over the East-Central and adjoining North-East Arabian Sea till Wednesday.

Fishermen are also advised not to venture into the sea along and off the Gujarat coast and the adjoining North Maharashtra coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. Those currently at sea are advised to return to the coast.

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