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As expected, a rain-driving area has popped up overnight over North-West Bay of Bengal, and, crossed land and shifted base this morning to over Coastal Odisha.
This 'low' has been in the making after erstwhile typhoon 'Doksuri' broke up in landfall over the Vietnam coast and a 'remnant pulse' kept travelling ahead in a largely westward direction.
RAINS FOR CENTRAL, NORTH INDIA
The 'pulse' had landed over the North-East Bay of Bengal yesterday after surviving the crisscross over Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Myanmar and started building traction in the Bay.
From its current location over Coastal Odisha, the 'low' is expected to travel in a west-northwest direction, dropping heavy rain over East India, adjoining Central and contiguous North-West India.
It might even undergo a round of intensification over South-West Uttar Pradesh and Delhi-Chandigarh-Haryana, escalating the rainfall pattern in the process.
India Met Department (IMD) projections suggest that the 'low' would then weaken over the region, but not before interacting with a western disturbance, resulting in heavy rainfall.
The 'low' would have led to a rainfall spurt over Madhya Pradesh and parts of the West Coast also, though not very heavy over the latter area, unlike expected earlier.
FOLLOW-UP CIRCULATION
Meanwhile, the IMD wind profile map also suggested that a follow-up rain-bearing circulation (though not necessarily a 'low') could be generated in the Bay of Bengal around September 25.
It is depicted as hurtling towards the South Andhra Pradesh coast and adjoining Chennai with associated bands of moderate to heavy rainfall and travelling over interior peninsula.
As on September 29, until when forecasts are available, the circulation is shown itself as posing over Telangana-Rayalaseema as a weakened system, but probably generating rains still.
There are also indications that this could be the last rain-bearing system to be sent in by the Bay before the South-West monsoon officially draws to a close on September 30.
The withdrawal of the monsoon, delayed by more than 20 days by then, would also begin as rains dry up over West Rajasthan, Gujarat and Jammu & Kashmir and progressively over Madhya Pradesh.
Peninsular India could however stay wet into first week of October, according to an outlook by the US Climate Prediction Centre.
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