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An anticipated low-pressure area has popped up over South-East Bay of Bengal on Tuesday and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) promptly put it under watch for intensification twice over into a depression by Wednesday and put it on a track towards the north Tamil Nadu coast by early Thursday morning.
It will only add to the woes of a weather-stricken coast of Tamil Nadu that is already battered by heavy rain and extensive flooding. The IMD has forecast fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall over Kerala, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu during the next five days when the depression expected crosses the coast before moving on.
System intensity, direction
The IMD has not indicated the time or exact place of landfall of the system nor its strength/intensity or its onward track. Some global models say it may weaken just before landfall, while others do not buy that argument just yet. The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) said the low-pressure area had hardly changed its coordinates over the South-East Bay on Tuesday.
Located at 1,140 km East-South-East of Chennai, it continued to display poorly organised convection (cloud banding) around it. But it was being helped by a favourable environment, marked by good ‘window’ effect on top that allows it to breathe in and out.
Favourable environment
Low vertical wind shear (abrupt of change in direction with height) and a very warm (29-30 deg Celsius) sea-surface are ideal factors for growth of the system. The Global Forecast System and the US Navy Global Environmental Model see fast development, while the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts and the German ICON are less optimistic.
The IMD has forecast isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall with isolated extremely heavy falls over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal until Thursday and over south coastal Andhra Pradesh on Thursday. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecast also over Kerala and until Thursday; over south coastal Andhra Pradesh on Wednesday; and over Rayalaseema until Thursday.
N-E monsoon braces to ride twin rain engines this week
Heavy rain outlook
Squally winds with speed reaching 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr may prevail over the South-East Bay on both Wednesday and Thursday; 45-55 km/hr gusting to 65 km/hr over South-West By and along and off Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these sea areas on Wednesday and Thursday.
Widespread light to moderate rainfall has been forecast over Kerala, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu during next five days. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu today (Tuesday) and heavy to very heavy rain at few places with Isolated extremely heavy falls tomorrow and the day after (Wednesday and Thursday).
Heavy to very heavy rain with extremely heavy falls is also likely over south coastal Andhra Pradesh during same period. Squally weather (winds speeds of 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr) may prevail over South-West and adjoining West-Central Bay and along and off the south Andhra Pradesh-Tamil Nadu coasts and Gulf of Mannar during next three days.
Heavy rains lash Chennai; Many areas waterlogged
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