Iran presidential hopefuls stay in the shadows

With just 100 days to go until a presidential election in Iran, both conservative heavyweights and reformists weakened after the controversial 2009 poll are keeping their cards close to their chests.

The June 14 election will be followed closely in the West four years after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s re-election for a second term sparked a wave of violent protests that were suppressed by the regime with deadly force.

Under the constitution, Ahmadinejad cannot stand for a third consecutive four-year term.

Mohsen Rezai, once commander of the elite Revolutionary Guard and now secretary of the Expediency Council, Iran’s highest arbitration body, and ex-foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki have expressed an interest in the post.

But both lack a popular support base and do not seem to have backing from within the regime, so their chances must be slim. Rezai also stood as a candidate in 2009, but secured less than a million out of the 40 million votes cast.

The process of screening candidates is entrusted to the Guardians Council, an unelected body controlled by religious conservatives appointed by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The council is set to announce the names of those who have been cleared to stand no later than May 22.

Given the microscopic scrutiny that contenders must undergo, Ahmadinejad’s mentor Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie is unlikely to pass muster. The former presidential chief of staff is the bane of ultra-conservatives because of his perceived “deviationist” nationalist and liberal views.

Ahmadinejad is therefore expected to resort to another like-minded person to back.

The ultra-conservatives supported Ahmadinejad in 2009, but declared open war against him after he challenged Khamenei’s authority in spring 2011.

To find a suitable replacement, the conservative camp has been active behind the scenes.

Three potential successors have formed an alliance called the “tripartite principalists coalition.”

Ali Akbar Velayati was foreign minister for 16 years from 1981 to 1997 and foreign affairs adviser to Khamenei, and the second is Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the current mayor of Tehran and a former national police chief.

The third, Gholam Ali Hadad-Adel, used to be a speaker of Parliament, and his daughter is married to Khamenei’s son.

Velayati, who is touted as the most serious candidate, has said one of the trio will register as a candidate, but remained open on who it will be.

The conservative “persistence front” could field Saeed Jalili, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council who is leading talks with world powers on Tehran’s nuclear drive.

Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, a member of an influential religious family whose brother heads the judiciary, is a direct appointee of Khamenei and another potential candidate.

It is unclear who will be fielded by the reformists, who want to turn the page on 2009 when their candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi cried foul over suspected widespread fraud and spearheaded the post-poll protests.

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