US President Donald Trump’s decision to turn down an invitation to attend India’s Republic Day 2019 celebrations as the chief guest isn’t quite a “setback” or a “snub” to bilateral relations in the way that some analysts have made it seem. But the episode does throw unflattering light on the Modi government’s unconcern for protocol in its pursuit of diplomacy. The Trump administration has cited “scheduling constraints” as the reason for its declining the invitation — which has spared the Modi government the blushes. But the fact that the news of the invitation was made public in the first place without securing back-channel acceptance from the White House reflects poorly on the MEA mandarins’ fidelity to the standard operating procedures that apply in cases like these. The establishment’s effort now to line up a leader of some stature for this NDA government’s last Republic Day parade before next year’s elections will be rendered a trifle more embarrassing: whoever is invited knows that s/he is a Plan B option.

The conduct of diplomatic relations is, of course, governed more by substantive issues than ephemeral optics. And on that count, Indo-US relations are actually on a fairly even keel, notwithstanding the short-term blips — particularly the frictions over trade tariffs, India’s decision to purchase the Russian S-400 missile system, and its continued import of Iranian oil in the face of US sanctions. The recently concluded 2 + 2 dialogue also advanced the Indo-US strategic relationship. However, given that Trump comes across as a “transactional President” who has watered-down traditional strategic relations with NATO and other allies, none of this counts for anything.

Nevertheless, the episode does present something of a teachable moment for the Modi government. Modi’s manifest belief that he can influence bilateral ties with the sheer force of his personality — and his ‘hugplomacy’ — is fraught with embarrassments of this sort.

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