Lessons from Katowice

The main achievement, it would seem, of the UN climate change ministerial that concluded at Katowice, Poland, last weekend was to put two giant climate deniers, Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, in their place. The fact that the Paris Accord ‘rulebook’ has been ratified marks a step forward, even with the US threatening to withdraw from the deal — something it cannot do before 2020. This show of resolve does not come as a surprise. Anxieties over the impact of climate change have been on the increase, be it hurricanes in the US, floods and cyclones in Tropics and fires in the Arctic. The latest research suggests that the ambition of the 2015 Paris accord, to be achieved through ‘nationally determined contributions’, may have to be ramped up. To target a 2 degrees Celsius rise in temperatures over pre-industrial levels is not enough, as even such a rise can be considerably devastating, observes the IPCC in its latest observations; the aim should be to restrict the rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. In fact, the year 2017 recorded a sharp rise in emissions, not only because of a revival of global growth, but also because a dry year (often an effect of warmer oceans) reduces the capacity of vegetation to absorb carbon dioxide. Global warming can become a self-perpetuating spiral.

But Katowice does not have much to show in concrete terms. There is little indication that funds for dealing with extreme weather events, or for technological innovation are going to flow soon. Meanwhile, concerns have been expressed over how India and China measure their emissions. India is justified in flagging yet again its concern that ‘equity’ is bypassed at such meets. In other words, the Kyoto Protocol principle of the rich countries shouldering a greater burden because of their overwhelming role in the stock of emissions in the atmosphere, even as Asia accounts for two-thirds of the increase in such emissions, is being gradually bypassed. The post-industrialised world is driving a rift, both at climate and trade talks, between the less developed world and the ‘emerging economies’. While this tendency needs to be checked, it does not help that India flaunts its status as the world’s fastest growing economy — a claim that could obscure both its energy and economic poverty.

India, by developing solar capacity and transiting to electric vehicles, is making efforts to reduce the energy intensity of its growth. Energy efficiency in the transportation and construction sectors can be improved. China and India need to clean up their economies, because the costs of global warming are starting to hurt — in terms of calamities, health and loss of labour productivity. The US and the EU are likely to remain tightfisted and averse to meeting their Green Climate Fund commitments. But a crisis throws up opportunities for innovation — even if outside the ambit of global conferences.

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