GLOBAL EYE. Saudi bungling

Jamal Khashoggi’s disappearance and murder has captured quite some spotlight in the Arab-West relations.

As mysterious as it was admittedly macabre, the inept handling of the aftermath by Saudi courtiers leaves one ironically entertained, though not surprised. Not surprised, as this is clearly one of the many failures of the kingdom in recent times where not one Saudi courtier is “thinking it through”. The same kingdom, less than five decades ago, had brilliantly brought the West to its knees through an oil embargo. It had also smartly hyped up the Iranian bogeyman to Western powers while ensuring one-upmanship in the Middle East. For all its warts Saudi could never be faulted for strategic brilliance in diplomacy. Until a few years ago.

Starting off with outright denial, to accidental death to a rogue operation, the fumbling Saudis are clearly testing the limits of diplomatic swing-space with the West. While Canada and Germany have started off with specific embargoes, the US is yet to use its whip. And while Western media is unforgiving of this incident and is already nailing the Crown Prince’s political coffin, the sequence of events that lie ahead might be entirely different.

While glaring inconsistencies in the official explanations have only deepened suspicions of a state-sponsored cover up, the only responses that matter for the Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), are domestic (Saudi citizenry) and that of the US.

Conspiracy theories on ground in Saudi are mixed and largely condone the Crown Prince. Apart from the standard, “Iran and Turkey did it in a joint operation”, to other outlandish theories of Khashoggi being the first cousin (which he was) of Dodi Fayed (Princess Diana’s partner) and the Western powers eliminating him to protect secrets of the English Crown, the blindsiding of any involvement by MBS is apparent. Theories also being purported about his previous association with his (now departed) uncle and arms dealer, Adnan Khashoggi, and Jamal holding critical information which the Western world wished to bury.

The sheer hilarity of these theories isn’t important. It’s that MBS has continued sanction and faith of a majority of his citizenry in the face of any brazen allegation is what’s noteworthy. To millions of young Saudis, MBS is still their only hope for the future: a bold leader they relate to and a visionary reformer who’s rolled back powers of the conservative clergy, given women the right to drive and reintroduced entertainment into the kingdom.

Now, for the second validation needed. Trump. A rap on the knuckles from Trump can be expected. He’s the capitalist chief in charge. “Saudi investments bring us jobs, you know”. The only unknown for MBS’s undoing could be the Saudi royal family itself. The gravity of the crisis facing the ruling al-Saud family can be gauged by the sudden return to Riyadh on Tuesday of Prince Ahmed bin Abdelaziz, the last surviving full brother of the 82-year old King Salman.

The mild mannered and thoughtful Prince Ahmed had become something of a cult hero amongst the MBS opposition after he spoke out openly against the war in Yemen. In most likelihood, MBS will lie low for a while and the perpetrators of the rogue operation will confess. A few months from now, another slew of social reforms might be announced.

Remember that by mid-2011, a few months into the Arab Spring uprising, almost everyone assumed that Syria's President Bashar al-Assad would be deposed by Christmas. Seven years on, and he is still in power.

The writer is a geo-political analyst.

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