Horticulture is a vital contributor to Himachal Pradesh’s economy, with apples adding approximately 80 per cent to it. Despite not being native to the region, apples have weaved themselves into the social fabric of the State, giving Himachal Pradesh the distinctive identify of the “Apple State” of India. However, climate change has started to threaten this legacy. The apple yields have either become highly erratic or begun to show a decline in many regions. Apple farmers from lower parts of the Kullu district have already switched to alternative crops. This situation calls for a deeper exploration of the challenges faced by the apple farming community, which is vital for the economic health of the State.

Apple cultivars require a certain number of cold days — called chilling hours — to bear healthy flowers and fruit. There is enough research-based evidence to suggest that climate change will reduce the future winter chilling hours in traditional apple farming zones and affect apple productivity. Near-future climate projections (15 years), such as the ones analysed by Azim Premji University using an ensemble of climate models, show that Himachal Pradesh is one of the States at high risk from rising average annual maximum temperatures and excess precipitation. The data shows that though the entire State is expected to experience an increase in average annual temperatures, the apple-producing regions of Chamba, Kullu, Kinnaur, Lahaul and Spiti, and Shimla are projected to be most hit, with an expected increase of 1.4 to 1.5 °C compared to the 1960 baseline.

Weather impact

While a figure of 1.5 °C may seem insignificant to many, it is an average rise in annual temperatures — many regions may experience even higher temperatures. The winters are expected to be shorter and warmer in general, resulting in lesser snowfall and its faster melting. Insufficient winter temperature can disrupt the crucial chilling period of apple trees leading to delayed flowering, improper setting of fruit, accelerated fruit maturity, reduced fruit size and overall poor quality of fruit that could fetch poor market rate. Moreover, consumers favour apples with their distinctive red colouration; however, warmer summers with temperatures exceeding 24 °C hinder the development of this red pigment, further impacting their market value.

In addition to temperature, apple is also extremely sensitive to drought, untimely precipitation and winds, especially during the blossom. Projections from the climate dataset developed by Azim Premji University also show a 3-4 per cent increase in annual precipitation. Due to rising temperatures, precipitation is expected mostly in the form of rain and less as snow. Moreover, the rains will be concentrated over smaller regions, with heavy downpour in shorter time periods, interspersed by long dry periods. Devastating flash floods during monsoons in recent years and heavy rainfall in February this year, exemplify these trends which are expected to increase in magnitude and severity in the upcoming years.

This year, snowfall in the State was minimal and occurred late in February, when the temperatures are relatively warmer than December and January. This led to rapid melting of snow. Snowmelt, when occurs over a longer period during winters, seeps into the soil and provides moisture for apple orchards for a longer duration. In contrast, heavy rainfall on the hilly terrain does not seep into the soil, but causes soil erosion, landslides and flash floods. All these factors are expected to have negative effects on apple productivity and even the supply chain due to damaged roads from floods and landslides.

Himachal Pradesh’s apple production has experienced concerning trends over the past decade. Though the area under apple cultivation is expanding the overall yields have declined significantly. Between 2017-2022, the State saw a 5.4 per cent increase in average cultivation area compared to 2011-2016, but the apple yields (production per unit area) dropped by 14 per cent during this period (data: Department of Horticulture, Government of Himachal Pradesh).

Increase in average annual temperatures has pushed the apple production “belt” to higher elevation. District of Lahaul and Spiti, once considered too cold for apple, now has expanses of apple orchards. However, closer inspection of the official data again presents a worrying figure here — the yields are highly variable and on an overall declining trend.

The media coverage of the grievances of the apple farming community highlights that apple farming has become a game of dice because of high variability in apple production and unfavourable climatic conditions. This directly affects almost 2.5 lakh families that thrive on income from their orchards across the State. Since apple is a major driver of the State economy, its crop failure also affects other businesses that rely on cash-flow from apple orchardists.

Policy measures

A comprehensive, multi-pronged strategy is necessary to effectively address the challenges posed by climate change in apple cultivation in Himachal Pradesh. Research and development efforts must prioritise the creation of indigenous rootstocks and climate-resilient apple varieties that require fewer chilling hours while also being economically viable. Reducing dependence on imported planting materials by focusing on indigenous varieties will enhance climate adaptability. As domestic apple growers face increasing competition from imports, particularly from the US and Iran, developing robust Indian cultivars is crucial for maintaining market stability.

The current model of apple farming in the State may need revision — and a multifaceted approach is essential for sustainable apple production. Some changes, such as high-density plantation, have already been implemented and promoted in Himachal Pradesh. Innovative water efficient methods, such as the Rajasthan model of apple cultivation in arid conditions, could also help diversify apple farming techniques. Apple farming in the State is heavily dependent on chemical inputs, causing degradation of soil quality, which also impacts the disease resilience of an apple tree. Soil rejuvenation and enrichment campaigns are needed to improve soil microbial diversity and resilience. Combining innovative farming methods with novel marketing methods can provide a fillip to the apple industry in the State. For example, high-density planting can be combined with contract farming to provide farmers with assured markets for their produce.

Establishing market intelligence systems are needed to link farmers with better price realisation. These systems analyse market trends, demand patterns, and price forecasts, enabling farmers to make informed decisions about the best time to sell their crops. They also offer real-time updates on market rates and weather conditions, which are crucial for apple growers in Himachal Pradesh to make decisions related to farming and transportation of their produce. Furthermore, market intelligence facilitates can help in collaborative selling by connecting small-scale farmers, allowing them to pool their produce and negotiate higher prices. Additionally, supportive policies such as subsidies for sustainable practices and insurance against climate-related losses can mitigate risks.

Implementing a climate resilience strategy should extend beyond farmers and farms. Revamping agricultural education is equally crucial. Agricultural universities should develop capabilities to train students to leverage climate data into actionable insights. The State must ensure that these educational institutions receive adequate funding to integrate advanced computational and modelling facilities. The efforts to improve weather forecasting and prediction of the State and linking such facilities with the curriculum of the agricultural universities should be tried.

The 6th Dean’s Committee Draft report on agricultural education emphasises the importance of introducing “new-age” courses, such as machine learning, environmental studies, and disaster management. However, these courses should not merely be nominal additions to students’ transcripts. Instead, they should provide rigorous training that equips fresh graduates working in State departments with the skills needed to analyse climate data. This approach will ensure that graduates are well-prepared to contribute meaningfully to climate resilience efforts.

Climate change poses significant challenges to apple farming in Himachal Pradesh, threatening both the State’s economy and its identity as the “Apple State” of India. Rising temperatures and unpredictable weather have disrupted traditional apple-growing regions, leading to lower yields and forcing farmers to seek alternatives. To tackle this crisis, efforts must focus on developing climate-resilient apple varieties, promoting sustainable farming practices, and implementing market intelligence systems to ensure better price realisation for farmers. Additionally, enhancing agricultural education and research will empower future generations to address climate challenges effectively. A collaborative and innovative approach is essential to safeguard Himachal’s apple farming legacy.

Jamwal is faculty at Azim Premji University, and Sharma is faculty at Dr Rajendra Prasad Central Agricultural University, Pusa, Bihar. Vies are personal

Published on June 19, 2025