The South-West monsoon is expected to emerge stronger after a brief recess, likely putting to rest speculations about a ‘lean July’ from adverse Indian Ocean conditions.

Seasonal rains had eased over many parts of the country except the West Coast and the hills at the start of July delivered a surplus not seen in decades together.

TO SCALE UP

Latest projection by US tracker models point to a situation where seasonal rains might scale up over West Coast, East and adjoining central India. Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Vidarbha, parts of north Maharashtra and Konkan-Mumbai are expected to witness rain fury that could last until July 20.

But the rest of peninsular India and west Rajasthan are expected to sit out of this productive session.

Expert meteorologist and monsoon watcher Akhilesh Gupta told Business Line that the year 2013 monsoon looked ‘in sound shape and bearing’ as it negotiated the second month of an as-yet surplus run.

Rains in July would go to further boost the kharif situation they ensured just what it needed – back-up moisture to fuel the vegetative phase.

KHARIF BOOSTER

If rains continued as were being forecast, they would postpone the ‘break-monsoon’ phase into August, aiding the transplantation phase and nursery preparation.

Break-monsoon refers to the inevitable recess in rain after the onset phase loses momentum. It has often been associated with prolonged dry spells.

One unmistakeable feature during the past many years had been that the ‘break’ had occurred during the crucial month of July, Gupta said.

OCEAN ANOMALY

Monsoon-friendly La Nina (when ocean warmth shifts to West Pacific and nearer to subcontinent) may have poured cold water on advance of a suspected anomaly in the Indian Ocean.

The so-called Indian Ocean Dipole, or see-sawing of temperatures in the Indian Ocean, was feared could derail Indian monsoon in July by diverting moisture away from the region.

On Sunday, a brewing low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal signalled the resurgent phase of the monsoon as skies over the region began to mass up clouds.

RAIN ALERT

India Met Department warned that heavy to very heavy rain would break out over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Himachal Pradesh during next three days.

Heavy rainfall is also expected over Bihar, north Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala. Coastal Andhra Pradesh would get lashed by heavy rain during next two days and Chhattisgarh and Telangana from Tuesday.

vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in

(This article was published on July 7, 2013)
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