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As Shubhanshu Shukla becomes the second Indian to hurtle into space, ferried by SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, the country erupts in joy. However, this happy occasion is also a moment of reckoning for the national space agency ISRO.
So far this year, two of the seven strategic space missions launched from the rocket port in Sriharikota, Andhra Pradesh, failed — a concerning 29 per cent failure rate.
Worse is the shortfall in the targeted space missions — only seven were accomplished of the planned 30 between the last quarter of FY24 and FY25.
This implies a mere 23 per cent success rate, as indicated by data from ISRO and the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the regulator for private sector space companies.
In February 2024, the country’s ‘integrated launch manifesto’ was announced, with plans for 30 space launches — commercial and non-commercial — by the government and private players, including seven test launches connected with India’s human space flight mission Gaganyaan.
But the actual achievement pales in comparison with the global competition.
Elon Musk-owned US company SpaceX, through its Falcon rockets, carried out 134 orbital launches in 2024 and 78 in 2025.
IN-SPACe said that of the 14 commercial missions identified, seven are by NewSpace India Limited (NSIL), including the production of two polar satellite launch vehicles (PSLV) through an industry consortium.
“This marks a substantial increase in launch activity compared to previous years, and is a positive indicator of the expanding space ecosystem in the country,” IN-SPACe had said in the launch manifesto.
However, the actual numbers are nowhere near the target. On an average, ISRO carries out about six space launches a year; so the 30 space missions outlined by IN-SPACe appear ambitious.
During the period under review (Q4 of FY24 and FY25), only the following missions were carried out by ISRO: PSLV-C58 on January 1, 2024; GSLV-F14 on February 17; SSLV-D3 on August 16; PSLV-C59 on December 5; PSLV-C60 on December 30; GSLV-F15 on January 29, 2025; and PSLV-C61 on May 18.
Both the missions in 2025 failed.
On May 18, a PSLV rocket carrying an earth observation satellite (EOS-09) with synthetic aperture radar (SAR), designed to strengthen surveillance capabilities, failed during flight. The EOS-09 satellite, with a lifespan of five years, was similar in function to the EOS-04 launched in 2022.
On January 29, the NVS-02 navigation satellite failed to reach its intended orbit due to a pyro valve malfunction. The satellite was carried by another expendable rocket, GSLV-F15. The valve failed to open, preventing oxidiser flow, despite the fuel pumps functioning.
A retired senior ISRO official suggested that the PSLV-C61 third-stage issue could stem from a faulty valve or electrical connector, leading to the pressure drop.
The back-to-back failures are unsettling.
The NVS-02 navigation satellite was meant to replace the ageing IRNSS-1E satellite, as part of India’s regional navigation system.
The cost of two failed missions, coupled with their replacement cost and the opportunity cost, would run into several hundreds of crores of rupees.
Looking ahead, the first PSLV rocket made by the HAL-L&T consortium is expected to lift off later this year.
Similarly, the much-delayed NISAR (NASA-ISRO synthetic aperture radar) satellite, a joint initiative of India and the US, is slated to be carried by the GSLV-F16 rocket sometime in July.
While a couple of start-ups have orbited satellites made by them, the two private rocket makers have come out with their full-fledged rockets.
It is time for ISRO to momentarily lower its gaze, away from the skies and towards the earth below, to gain a grip on the ground realities and set right its course.
If the Indian space sector continues to move at the current pace, the targeted $44-billion space economy by 2033 will remain a distant dream.
(The writer is an independent journalist based in Chennai)
Published on June 29, 2025
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