IGC further trims global wheat output estimate to 676 mt

The International Grains Council (IGC) has further trimmed its global wheat production forecast for 2012-13 to 676 million tonnes as the crop prospects in European countries are not bright due to unfavourable weather.

Last month, the London-based organisation had forecast the output at 681 mt for 2012-13, lower than the record output of 695 mt last year.

“Wheat output is expected to decline... The forecast of world wheat production in 2012-13 is cut by five mt to 676 mt, some 19 mt below the previous year’s record,” the IGC said in its latest grains report.

EU crop forecast

The EU crop forecast is reduced sharply due to reports of worse than expected winter damage and recent dry conditions, it said.

With some winter wheat in the EU and Ukraine to be replanted, total area planted to wheat crop is unlikely to show much change compared to 2011-12, it added.

China and India are the top two wheat producing countries in the world. The crop year varies from country to country. In India, wheat is planted in late October-November and the harvesting usually begins by middle of April.

Global consumption

According to the IGC report, the global wheat consumption is expected to decline marginally to 680 mt against 684 mt in 2011-12.

“Growth in food and industrial use is expected to be outweighed by a fall in feed, but total world consumption is forecast to show only a limited decline,” it said.

With reduction in import of wheat for feed use, the world trade is likely to slump by five mt from a new peak of 140 mt last year. But much of trade will depend on the level of feed wheat prices relative to maize.

Even world stocks at the end of 2012-13 are forecast to be down by two mt at 206 mt against 210 mt last year, it added.

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