IGC further trims wheat output forecast to 665 mt

The International Grains Council (IGC) has further trimmed its global wheat production forecast for 2012-13 to 665 million tonnes due to unfavourable conditions in some countries including Russia.

In May, the London-based organisation had pegged the global wheat output at 671 mt for 2012-13. The revised forecast is lower than 695 mt output in 2011-12.

“The wheat production forecast is reduced by six million tonnes from last month to 665 mt, down 4 per cent from the 2011-12 record,” IGC has said in its latest Grains Report.

The outlook for world wheat production in 2012-13 continues to be affected by unfavourable conditions in some countries, including a further deterioration in crop expectations in Russia.

However, the US wheat harvest was generally better than expected, while recent rains helped crops in parts of Europe to show some recovery from the less-than-ideal conditions earlier in the season, it added.

Similarly, world wheat consumption may fall to 682 mt from 689 mt, the IGC said.

China, with more than 100-mt output, is the world’s largest wheat producer. India is the world’s second-biggest producer and is estimated to have harvested 90.23 mt in 2011-12, as per the government data.

According to the IGC report, global trade in wheat is expected to be lower at 134.6 mt in 2012-13 against 143.5 mt in the year-ago, as milling wheat imports, particularly in North Africa, are nearly balanced by an increase in projected feed wheat trade.

Smaller export surpluses in the Black Sea region will see demand switch to other regions in the year ahead, especially the US, it added.

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