While the BJP is fast shedding its tag — ‘cow belt party’ — Tamil Nadu is clearly proving to be the last frontier for it. Despite the Modi wave, both in 2014 and this time, the party has struggled to make inroads into the State that is dominated by Dravidian parties. In the recent election, it failed to win a single seat (it contested in five). Worse, its vote share declined from 5.55 per cent in 2014 to 3.66 per cent in 2019.

This performance has left party leaders wondering what went wrong. Political pundits offer multiple reasons for the debacle. It ranges from lack of a strong leader, resistance to BJP’s Hindutva policies to strong anti-Modi sentiment. The strong nationalistic fervour that Modi whipped up post-Pulwama/Balakot did not find many takers too.

This outcome has led to rumours about actor Rajinikanth leading the BJP during the State Assembly elections due in 2021. Rajinikanth has been invited for Modi’s swearing in ceremony on Thursday and he has described him as a ‘charismatic’ leader like Jawaharlal Nehru and Rajiv Gandhi.

In the absence of a good leader and workers at the grassroots level, the BJP tried to ride piggyback on alliance partners — the AIADMK, the PMK and the DMDK — and was hopeful of getting at least two seats. However, the arithmetic did not work as the DMK-Congress combine swept the elections benefiting from anti-incumbency. Demonetisation and GST created negative image for the BJP and Modi. Adding to this were anger against Centre-sponsored projects; the Salem-Chennai highway; the hydrocarbon project; the container transshipment port at Colachel; and the GAIL gas pipeline.

Handling of the Sterlite and Jallikattu issues by the Centre and the State also went against the BJP with the opposition blaming Modi for the fiasco. “The Opposition used every medium to oppose everything and blamed Modi. However, local leaders did not counter them effectively,” admitted a senior BJP party leader.

In Kanyakumari, BJP’s Pon Radhakrishnan lost badly to retailer Vasanthakumar of the Congress, despite his good work in creating infrastructure in the constituency.

“In neighbouring Thoothukudi, Tamilisai Soundararajan lost to DMK’s Kanimozhi with Sterlite issue being a major factor,” said N Sathiya Moorthy, political analyst and Director of Observer Research Foundation, Chennai Chapter.

Similarly, at Coimbatore, demonetisation and the GST hurt small- and medium-sized industries with a number of units being closed down. In the Sivaganga constituency, the BJP tried to focus on Hindutuva. In Ramanathapuram, BJP’s candidate Nainar Nagenthran was considered as an outsider, and failed to make an impact, said Moorthy.

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