Except for the Israeli hardliners led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the expected Republican cheerleaders in Washington DC, few are celebrating the “spectacular military success” of the B-2 missions that in the words of President Donald Trump “completely and fully obliterated” key Iranian nuclear sites. And in an address to the nation from the White House Trump had a blunt warning as well. “There will be peace or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days.”

Speculations will start on why the two week window for diplomacy came crashing down in just two days. For starts the thinking is that the President’s Middle East Special Envoy Steve Witkoff could have told the President that his dialogue was getting nowhere; or military advisors and intelligence officials informing Trump that this was the best time to strike given that the Israelis had already softened the ground through their lightning strikes. In any event the sites of Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz were hit with bunker busters and Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Much of what is to follow will depend on how Teheran responds, for it has already warned of dire consequences should Washington join Tel Aviv’s blitz. And Iran’s response will be against the backdrop of President Trump’s warning that more strikes could follow with skill and precision. Analysts are maintaining that even if American strikes seem limited, there is every possibility of the conflict widening in scope involving not just American interests in the Middle East, including its troops in the region, but also the oil and energy interests of the Gulf states, many of whom are aligned with America.

Beyond the chest thumping by the Right in the US and Israel, many would be inclined to see the spread of an ongoing conflict in which the US has just thrown gasoline over an already raging fire. And it goes much beyond guessing what Teheran has up its sleeve, which to a large extent will depend on how the internal situation unfolds in the country. First indications are that shipping and transportation will be the focus of attention: to monitor what Iran does on its own in the Straits of Hormuz as well as through its proxy, the Houthis, by way of attacking tankers through the waterways. The strength of the understanding between Washington and the Houthis is now up in the air.

Damage assessment

It may be still too early to assess the damages inflicted on the Iranian nuclear sites. Even prior to the American strikes there were concerns of radiation leaks in some of the Israeli offensives. This apart, the last word on the extent of damages to the sites, especially at Fordow that is said to have housed advanced centrifuges, is yet to be known and will not be available in any credible fashion for some time. If Iranian officials are minimising the extent of damage, that is only to be expected under the situation. The more pertinent and larger question is if the Iranian nuclear weapons programme has been wiped out to the extent it would have to go back to the drawing board.

Having embarked on a dangerous course of action, the White House would now have to look at ways of managing the situation in a way that does not drag the US into a conflict that has the potential of spiralling out of control. Critics of the President and a few within the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement have not hesitated to point out Trump’s aversion to intervention in foreign wars and his own plank in the 2024 election. Further, for all the talk of regime change as being one of the objectives but the internal political situation hardly showing signs of faltering, President Trump’s decision to unleash the B-2s has probably given a new lease of life to the Ayatollahs.

The writer is a senior journalist who has reported from Washington DC on North America and United Nations

Published on June 22, 2025