The drop in production of first flush tea in Assam may not be as sharp as it was earlier projected.

“If at all, the production in March and April together may be the same as that in the previous year”, A.N. Singh, Chairman, Indian Tea Association, told Business Line . “There has been rainfall in the past few days, and hopefully, this will continue in the next month”.

The hue and cry over probable first flush crop failure in Assam was raised mainly because of the delayed rainfall.

“It has started raining now and if the production of March and April is taken together, the shortfall may not be there”, Singh said.

For the same reason, the tea industry is unable to estimate precisely the extent of shortfall in first flush production in Assam and figures being doled out vary widely.

Perhaps a clearer picture will emerge when the Tea Board releases the figures, said tea industry sources.

The delayed rainfall, however, will lead to delayed arrival of first flush Assam tea in the auction.

“It will be another two to three weeks before the Assam first flush crop arrives,” said a leading tea broker. “The delay is likely to put pressure on the prices”.

The first flush crop in Dooars on the other hand has been largely unaffected. “The Dooars crop has been good so far and volumes more than last year have started arriving in the market”, he said. “The overall prices so far, therefore, have been lower than those in the last year when the production was small and the prices high”.

The ITA Chairman, however, expressed his concern over the situation in the Barak Valley (Assam’s Cachar district) where the rainfall continues to be scanty and weather dry. But tea industry sources point out that the Cachar production being small, around 50 million kg or so, the crop failure, if any, may not have significant impact on the prices.

Since first flush accounts for a meager 10 per cent or so of the total production in a year, the drop, if any, in first flush production should not be a matter of concern if the second flush proves to be good. The second flush should be ready by end May-early June.

Published on March 28, 2013