Looks like pearl millet, one of the oldest crops in the world and the most popular of millets, needs an urgent course correction in terms of the area it is grown. A ‘digital twin’ of pearl millet ecology has come out with a roadmap for India, providing the why and how of the transformation that is needed.

A team of researchers, commissioned by the International Crops Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) and Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), have mapped the pearl millet growing areas in the country and assessed various parameters related to pearl millet crops and suggested changes in order to protect the output.

The team includes researchers from institutes like ICRISAT (India), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (Germany), Institut de Recherche Pour le Développement (France), All India Coordinated Research Project on Pearl Millet (India).

This research was funded through collaborations between ICAR, ICRISAT, the Swiss National Science Foundation, the Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, and the Crops to End Hunger initiative.

They developed a ‘digital twin’ by collating historical weather, yields and other agronomical data to simulate the pearl millet crop status in digital arena. This digital twin helps design crops and strategies tailored to the current and future climate conditions of each region.

(A digital twin is a virtual representation of a physical thing, premises, or person. It mimics the real-life counterpart, allowing researchers to assess, test, monitor, and visualise future growth contours. This helps in saving costs and reducing effort.)

The new study by ICRISAT and All India Coordinated Research Project on Pearl Millet (ICAR-AICRP) suggests a re-evaluation of how and where pearl millet is grown in India due to changing climate conditions. They used data from ICRISAT’s District Level Database (DLD) to carefully re-examine the entire system.

Shifting weather patterns

Amidst shifting weather patterns and evolving agricultural priorities, this study urges a timely revision of the classification criteria governing pearl millet cultivation zones, originally established back in 1979.

The data shows that precipitation during the kharif period increased, leading a silent yet significant shift where pearl millet area was impacted in some geographies.

“With climate change now a permanent reality, it is imperative to recalibrate the approach towards understanding and nurturing this vital crop for dryland communities. This new classification system aims to optimise pearl millet production, to effectively assist policymakers, researchers, and farmers make better evidence-based decisions,” Director General of ICRISAT Jacqueline Hughes, has said.

“This collaborative effort with ICRISAT has led to innovative tools that can greatly improve pearl millet farming, including the selection of new testing sites,” Tara Satyavathi, Director of ICAR-Indian Institute of Millets Research and Project Coordinator of ICAR-AICRP on Pearl Millet, said.

Changes suggested

Currently, India’s zones are based on rainfall and soil type: A1 for arid regions in Rajasthan, A for semi-arid regions in North and Central India, and B for semi-arid regions with heavy soils in South India.

The proposed changes suggest re-evaluating the A zone, considering evolving climate conditions.

“The proposed new zones take into account the complexity of the system in response to changing climate conditions. While the existing zoning for the A1 and B zones is generally still applicable, the suggestion is to modify the A zone,” the researchers said.

“The existing A zone can be broken down into three distinct subzones: G, AE1, and AE2, covering the States in North and Central India. The G zone encompasses Gujarat, AE1 covers East Rajasthan and Haryana, and AE2 covers Uttar Pradesh,” Vincent Garin, Post-Doctoral Fellow at ICRISAT, said.

The new zoning framework identifies ‘AE1’ as the core of India’s pearl millet production, where favorable climate and soil conditions, along with improved pearl millet varieties, have led to significant yield increases.

‘AE2’ shows promising yield progress and better farming practices, offering potential for export-oriented gains.

The G zone is experiencing more rainfall due to climate changes, which may lead farmers to shift towards cash crops and limit pearl millet cultivation to the summer season.

Pearl Millet area

The researchers proposed a new characterisation of the pearl millet production environment using the latest available district-level data (1998–2017), principal component analysis, and large-scale crop model simulations. 

The eastern part of the country (Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh) emerges as the only region where pearl millet cultivation has grown. Reductions of pearl millet cultivated area in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka are potentially due to an economy-driven transition to other more profitable crops, such as cotton or maize. The potential rain increase could also accelerate this transition.

In India, pearl millet is mainly cultivated under rain-fed conditions during the rainy season (kharif) and represents 92 per cent of the yearly cultivated surface during the period 1998–2017.

Due to its capacity to use water efficiently and its heat tolerance, pearl millet is adapted to harsh climatic conditions where other crops fail to produce economic yield.

“However, despite constant increases across the production area, with an average of 1161 kg/ha over 1998–2017, pearl millet yield remains low compared to other crops in the same regions,” the paper said.

“Limited market opportunities and minimal government support are important constraints for farmers to consider pearl millet for cultivation,” it said.

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