The Bay of Bengal is suddenly bristling with the prospect of another cyclone going away from the Indian coast and headed towards Bangladesh within a month after very severe cyclone Hamoon made a destructive landfall near Chittagong on October 25, affecting nearly five lakh lives along the coast.
Third of season
India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the brewing successor may not ratchet up to anywhere near Hamoon’s strength but will likely end up as a minimal cyclone. On Thursday, it said a deep depression over West-Central Bay located 420 km East of Visakhapatnam, 270 km South-South-East of Paradip and 410 km South of Digha continued to develop traction.
The deep depression will likely continue to move North-North-East (away from Indian coast) and intensify further into a cyclone and cross the Bangladesh coast between Mongla and Khepupara with wind speeds of 60-70 km/hr gusting to 80 km/hr by the early hours of Friday. This would be the third cyclone of the North-East monsoon season this year after concurrent extremely severe cyclone Tej in the Arabian Sea and Hamoon in the Bay.
Rain for Tamil Nadu
The brewing cyclone has left behind an upper air circulation over the South-West Bay and adjoining Sri Lanka and sending out a trough to itself. Short to medium-term outlook suggests the waxing and waning trough sustaining easterly to north-easterly winds along the Tamil Nadu coast for the next four to five days. Light to moderate rain is likely at some places over the Tamil Nadu coast with isolated heavy rainfall on Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday and over Kerala on Sunday and Monday.
Along its track, it would bring untimely light to moderate rainfall at many places over the coastal districts of West Bengal on Thursday and Friday with isolated heavy rainfall over coastal districts of North Odisha on Thursday. Light to moderate rain is likely at many places over Nagaland, Kanpur, Mizoram and Tripura with isolated heavy rainfall from Thursday to Saturday and very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Mizoram and Tripura on Friday. Light to moderate rainfall is likely at many places over South Assam and East Meghalaya also with isolated heavy rainfall on Friday and Saturday.
Next burst of rain
Some global models indicate once the cyclone blows over the Bangladesh coast on Friday, fresh rain may break out over the Indian side over Central India from November 25 with focus over West Madhya Pradesh, West Maharashtra and adjoining West Coast. This could likely result from an interaction of an incoming western disturbance digging deep over North-West India and the North Arabian Sea with the easterlies to north-easterlies from the Bay, early signals of which are available from an extended IMD outlook, too.