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India’s cotton crop is estimated to hit the lowest levels since 2009-10, mainly on account of climate impact on the fibre crop that is grown in close to a dozen States in India, the Cotton Association of India, a body of traders, has said.
In its latest crop review, the association said on Wednesday that it lowered the cotton crop size for the year 2022-23 to 303 lakh bales (each of 170 kg), the lowest since 2009-10. Out of the projected crop, so far 190.63 lakh bales is estimated to have arrived in the markets between October 2022 and March 2023.
The climatic adversities in parts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Punjab caused a major dent in cotton cultivation. As per the CAI’s latest estimates, the crop size in Telangana will be lower by 5 lakh bales, followed by Maharashtra (lower by 3 lakh bales) and Punjab (lower by 2 lakh bales).
Also read: Cotton: Crying out for change
The lower production projection is set to influence prices, which have already started heading north to ₹62,900 per candy (each of 356 kg of ginned processed cotton) from ₹61,000 a month ago. CAI president Atul Ganatra has said cotton prices could top ₹75,000 a candy during June-July.
Imports to go up
Lower crop will have direct impact on cotton imports, which is expected to go up to 15 lakh bales, from 14 lakh bales last year, CAI noted.
The CAI has estimated cotton consumption at 311 lakh bales against 318 lakh bales recorded for the previous year. The total availability of cotton is projected at 349.89 lakh bales, that includes opening stock of 31.89 lakh bales and imports of 15 lakh bales besides the crop size of 303 lakh bales.
Also read: Telangana farmers begin sowing cotton during rabi season
CAI has projected total domestic consumption at 311 lakh bales, including 280 lakh bales by mill consumption, 15 lakh bales by small-scale industries and about 16 lakh bales as non-textile consumption. Exports are projected lower at 25 lakh bales against 43 lakh bales shipped last year. As per the CAI data, about 10.50 lakh bales have already been shipped till March 31, 2023.
The carryover stock at the end of the season is projected to be one of the lowest in recent years at 13.89 lakh bales.
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