Heavy rain may sustain over South Peninsula, West Coast for two more days 

Heavy rains over South Peninsula, mainly along the West Coast, may sustain for two more days while similar conditions over Konkan, Goa and the adjoining ghat areas may last a little longer, and over Gujarat for an extended five days, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday. 

This, for one, is being attributed to proximity to monsoon trough that lies South of its normal position, indicating an active monsoon. The East-West share zone of turbulence too has moved north, closer to Konkan and Goa even as the the offshore trough stays active from South Gujarat to North Kerala. Last, but not the least, a cyclonic circulation persists over the North-East Arabian Sea and adjoining Gujarat.

Rain deficit shrinks

Rain deficit for the country as a whole has narrowed to 7 per cent on Wednesday, with North-West India running way ahead with recorded surplus rain of 37 per cent, the only homogenous region of the total four to do so. The deficit was highest over the South Peninsula (-32 per cent), followed by East and North-East India (-17 per cent) and Central India (-6 per cent). 

Deficit in Central India is a statistical anomaly than a realistic assessment on ground since it is hugely influenced by advance heavy precipitation brought to Gujarat by cyclone Biparjoy in June. The monsoon will stay largely muted over the otherwise rain-deficient region where the IMD has predicted light to moderate to fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls for next two days. 

A short-term outlook valid until Sunday from the European Central for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggested heavy to very heavy rain over the West Coast, Gujarat and North-West India. It would be heaviest over Gujarat, North Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand and slightly less intense over South-West Rajasthan, Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh. 

Arrival of a western disturbance is seen boosting the rainfall over North-West India during this phase. The IMD sees light to moderate fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over the region during next five days. Isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over Uttarakhand and East Rajasthan during the next five days, the IMD outlook suggested. 

Heavy rain for North-East

Towards East and North-East India, fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls may continue over the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim; Assam and Meghalaya; Arunachal Pradesh; Nagaland and Manipur during next five days. Isolated heavy rainfall is forecast also over Odisha and Bihar during this period, and over Jharkhand on Friday. 

Vishwas Chitale, Senior Programme Lead, Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), told businessline the Indian monsoon system by its nature is known for its high spatial-temporal variability. This natural variability is further amplified by human-induced climate change. Warmer temperatures increase evaporation, leading to more moisture in the atmosphere. When weather systems interact with this moisture, it can result in the formation of intense rain clouds and heavier rainfall events.

According to CEEW analysis, around 45 per cent of Indian districts are experiencing a shift from droughts to floods and vice versa due to these changes. Additionally, disruptions in landscapes, such as vegetation loss and increased urbanisation, worsen the impacts and contribute to a higher occurrence of floods. “This trend is particularly noticeable in Indian cities. For instance, our analysis found that nearly 60 per cent of the landscape in the NCT of Delhi has undergone unsustainable changes in the last two decades,” said Chitale.

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