North-East monsoon likely to begin between October 17 to 23

Conditions are expected to become favourable for complete withdrawal of the South-West monsoon and commencement of North-East monsoon over the South Peninsula during October 17 to 23.

Read more:Monsoon withdrawal gathers speed over North-West

India Met Department (IMD) said that rains may scale up over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh during this period, normally considered the window for onset for North-East monsoon.

Super typhoon effect

An extended outlook from October 16 to 18 said that scattered to fairly widespread rainfall may continue over the South Peninsula while it would be isolated to scattered over East and North-East India. Isolated heavy falls are likely over parts of East and Peninsular India.

Erstwhile super typhoon 'Hagibis' in the North-West Pacific and currently impacting Japan has been taking away most of the north-easterly flows, preventing the usual build-up to North-East monsoon farther to its West in the Bay of Bengal.

Thunderstorm activity may kick-start in the Bay early next week after 'Hagibis' fades away, according to an outlook by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (featured by www.windy.com ), setting the ground for the North-East monsoon.

The IMD said, on Friday, that the South-West monsoon has further withdrawn from entire Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, some parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh and some parts of West Madhya Pradesh, entire Rajasthan and some parts of Saurashtra & Kutch and Gujarat region.

Withdrawal process

The withdrawal line passes through Forbesganj, Daltonganj, Jabalpur, Ujjain, Ahmedabad, Naliya on Friday and the process may hasten further during the next two days when the monsoon exits most parts of Central India and more parts of West and East India.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall and thunderstorms accompanied with lightning with isolated heavy falls, associated with the transition from South-West to North-East monsoon, is likely over the South Peninsula during this period.

Outlook for Saturday said that heavy rainfall is over Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala. Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning may break out over Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan & Goa, Interior Karnataka and Kerala.

According to the IMD, the ongoing week (October 10 to 16) would see above normal rainfall over Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, South Odisha, South Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Tripura.

Above normal rain

During the week that follows (October 17 to 23), rains may grow further delivering above normal rainfall over Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telengana, Andhra Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, plains of Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala.

Meanwhile, as the South-West monsoon began to pick pace on Friday, latest rainfall statistics reveal that the first 10 days of October delivered two per cent above normal rainfall for the country as a whole. 

The above-normal rain during this period was built on surpluses recorded over West, North-West India and Interior Peninsula and a largely normal rainfall regime over East India.

But deficits were recorded in Konkan & Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Marathawada, in Peninsular India/South Peninsula as well as Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh, West Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and parts of North-East India.

The week from October 3 to 9 also saw the country as a whole recording 14 per cent below normal rainfall, with East and North-East India logging the worst deficit, the IMD said.

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