Oil drops by over 1% as economic outlook weakens, US supply surges

Oil prices dropped by more than one per cent on Friday as clouds gathered over the global economy after the European Central Bank (ECB) warned of continued weakness and fresh data showed Chinese exports and imports slumped last month.

With surging US supply also unsettling markets, international benchmark Brent crude futures were at $65.42 per barrel at 0803 GMT, down 88 cents, or 1.3 per cent from their last close.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $56.03 per barrel, down 63 cents, or 1.1 per cent.

Financial markets, including crude oil futures, took a hit after ECB President Mario Draghi said on Thursday the European economy was in “a period of continued weakness and pervasive uncertainty”. Europe's economic weakness comes as growth in Asia is also slowing down.

So far oil demand has held up, though, especially in China where imports of crude remain above 10 million barrels per day (bpd). Yet a slowdown in economic growth will at some point likely dent fuel demand, putting pressure on prices.

China's February dollar-denominated exports fell 21 per cent from a year earlier, the biggest drop in three years and far worse than analysts' expectations, while imports dropped 5.2 per cent, official data showed on Friday.

On the supply side, crude oil has been receiving support this year from output cuts led by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Together with some non-affiliated producers such as Russia, the producer group has pledged to withhold around 1.2 million bpd of supply to tighten markets and prop up prices.

But these efforts are being undermined by soaring US crude oil production, which has increased by more than 2 million bpd since early 2018, to an unprecedented 12.1 million bpd. That makes America the world's biggest producer, ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Investment bank Jefferies said on Friday that US output growth was largely being fuelled by onshore shale production, which had recently benefited from investments by oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

“The majors bring scale, steady capital investment and science to the play and could lead the basin to a higher growth trajectory - which in turn could cap the upside in oil prices,” the US bank said.

TOP OIL EXPORTER?

US crude exports have also been chasing new records, reaching 3.6 million bpd in February - more than OPEC members such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iran produce.

“The US will soon export more oil and liquids than Saudi Arabia,” consultancy Rystad Energy said this week. Liquids include non-crude oil products such as natural gas liquids (NGLs).

“The (Saudi) kingdom currently exports some 7 million bpd of crude oil plus about 2 million bpd of NGLs and petroleum products, compared with the US now exporting approximately 3 million bpd of crude oil and 5 million barrels of NGLs and petroleum products,” Rystad said.

“US oil production ... will grow by close to another 1 million bpd in 2019,” the consultancy said.

Rystad said this export surge would have huge benefits for the US economy.

“The US trade deficit will evaporate, and its foreign debt will be paid quickly thanks to the swift rise of American oil and gas net exports,” said Rystad Energy senior partner Per Magnus Nysveen.

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