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The monsoon has quite some steam left behind, and would stay active until August 22, according to an ensemble outlook from the US National Weather Services. In fact, it would witness another busy session from August 14 as a productive Bay of Bengal send in cyclonic circulations/low-pressure areas to East, Central and adjoining North-West India.
Isolated deficits
This would largely be the trend going into August 22 up to which information is available, according to the US agency. A circulation may pop up even over South Andhra Pradesh coast by August 18. It remains to be seen if this could lift the spirits up of the Rayalaseema subdivision, an outlier in Peninsular India where the rain deficit has shot up to- 41 per cent as of yesterday (Sunday).
North interior Karnataka too has fallen into deficit with -22 per cent, while, out into the South-East Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep too has witnessed an unusual deficit grow to -46 per cent. The other deficit to the West of the country is the vulnerable Saurashtra & Kutch, though with a manageable -23 per cent. In the East, the situation has improved much better last than last week.
Only Jharkhand features some deficit at -26 per cent but this subdivision and neighbourhood would likely get heavy showers from the latest burst of activity in the Bay.
Fresh ‘low’ brewing
India Met Department (IMD) has said that a fresh low-pressure area would form off Bengal by tomorrow (Tuesday) even as the western end of the monsoon trough moves closer to the Himalayas. This would cause rains to concentrate heavier on the foothills of the North-East, East and North-West India and worsen the existing flood situation in some of the towns/cities.
It would also mean that the lean monsoon activity over Central India and Peninsular India would continue until the Bay erupts the next time, ie from August and a week hence. But, along with other two subdivisions in the South, Rayalaseema can look forward to its share from The North-East monsoon that sets later in October.
The IMD too seems to suggest the same scenario evolving over the next two to three days with fairly widespread to widespread rains with isolated heavy falls Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Subdued rainfall activity is likely to continue over the West and adjoining Central as well as Peninsular India during next four days.
Heavy rains seen
An extended forecast from the IMD for August 11 to 13 said that fairly widespread rains is likely over the Western Himalayas, plains in the North, East and Northeast India and also along the West Coast. Isolated to scattered rain is likely over Central India and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands while it will be isolated over the rest parts of the country.
The IMD has already raised its monsoon outlook for the country from the original 94 per cent to 96 per cent, ruling out the fears of building deficit.
As for today (Monday), it has forecast heavy to very heavy rain over Uttarakhand and Odisha while it will be heavy over Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal, Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. Given the context of a brewing 'low,' sea conditions may range from 'rough' to 'very rough' along the Odisha and Bengal coasts as well as off the Andaman Islands. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea over these areas.
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