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Ajay Srivastava, Founder, Global Trade Research Initiative, and Aarati Krishnan, Consulting Editor, businessline, at a fireside chat at the MSME Growth Conclave Coimbatore | Photo Credit: BIJOY GHOSH
A word which is leaving the world confused is ‘tariff’, particularly when it is from head of a state. So, how much the tweets by the heads of the state actually impact trade? This set the tone for the fireside chat with Ajay Srivastava, founder of Global Trade Research Initiative with Aarati Krishnan, Consulting Editor, businessline.
Responding to this question, Srivastava said they should be taken seriously.
“For instance, as per May 25 data, US’ imports from China declined by 45 per cent. It was because of [Trump] tweets. The US and China did not issue any orders. The tweets were converted in to orders later on. A real impact is happening on world trade because of Trump’s tweets,” said Srivastava, a former Indian Trade Service officer, who was once part of India’s WTO and FTA negotiating teams.
Elaborating, he said 90 per cent of America’s exports to India are industrial exports except automobiles.
“India can bring these tariffs down from day one,” he said. The problem is that the US wants agriculture in India to be opened up and not with industrial goods.
“Currently, 60 per cent of imports into India from the US are petroleum crude, LNG, waste paper, waste scrap, copper scrap,” he said.
Nudged further, he said that the US is absent from the industrial goods where China excels. “We don’t have anything to fear,” he added.
On Free Trade Agreements and the one with the UK now, he said. “Automobile constitutes one third to half of India’s manufacturing GDP. It supports four crore jobs. If we have opened up to the UK, soon it will be for the Europe and US. We are already getting feelers from Japan and Korea. On whether Indian manufacturers are really capitalising on China plus One, he said it was happening only selectively.
“Our China plus One is dependent on [components from] China, unfortunately. To truly become an alternative to China, we need to cut the costs of making things in India. For this, fundamental reforms are needed,” he said.
On a question on relevance of WTO from businessline Editor Raghuvir Srinivasan, Srivastava said: “The WTO dispute resolution mechanism is dead now.”
Published on June 27, 2025
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