Given the high prevalence of under nourishment, India is promoting the nutrition rich cereals (nutri-cereals-NCs) like bajra, jowar, maize and other millets in the place of staple cereals (rice and wheat).

The promotion of NC crops is a leading policy issue over the past decade, at the Central and State levels. But the area under these crops is declining over the years. Since most NC crops are grown in less endowed regions by small and marginal farmers, promotional policies would achieve twin objectives of improving the conditions of the most vulnerable farmers as well as regions.

Remunerative prices are critical for improving the profitability and encouraging farmers to expand the area under these crops. At the same time there are other serious trade-offs that policy makers should consider. These trade-offs include: food vs. nutrition security; allocation of resources like water and land.

Food-nutrition trade-off

Though expansion of NC crops helps improve nutrition security, it would adversely impact food security. For, increased area under NC crops is likely to come at the cost of a decline in the area under staple cereals. In this regard, expansion of area under NCs has trade-offs with other policy objectives of food security or doubling the farm income.

For, a 10 per cent increase in the area under NC could push India below self-sufficiency level at current levels of preferential demand for wheat and rice vis-a-vis millets (Figure 1). Though India is self-sufficient in foodgrain production, the situation is not overly comfortable (based on NSS 68th round Household consumption. Also see NITI AYOG report which gives similar estimates - table 3.4, page 78 - https://www.niti.gov.in/sites/default/

files/2021-08/Working-Group-Report

-Demand-Supply-30-07-21.pdf).

International experiences of recent years have clearly demonstrated the delicate situation of food security status due to trade and market shocks (pandemic and war) apart from climate change and natural disasters. This would adversely affect the hunger (calorie based) goal of SDGs.

Besides, the national objective of doubling of farm income can be achieved only through high value crops like horticulture. While diversified production and food basket could improve nutrition security, it may come at the cost of food security. Balancing these two is a major challenge, at least in the short to medium run. This calls for a balanced approach that minimises the trade-offs between policy goals.

The main bottleneck for maintaining foodgrain production through expansion of area under NCs is due to the yield gap between NCs and staple cereals. NC yields are substantially lower when compared to paddy and wheat (Figure 2).

Among the NC crops only maize has comparable yields. Excluding maize, the yield rates of the remaining NC crops are less than 50 per cent of rice and wheat. Reasons for this include: technological (high yielding seeds) and resource gaps (access to irrigation and input deficiency). Low profitability is also linked to low yields along with low output prices.

Reducing the yield gap is critical for addressing the food security. In the absence of remunerative prices, increase in farm income can come mainly from high value crops (including vegetables and fruits). Given the changed food habits, moving towards NCs may not be easy unless incentivized substantially (profitability).

Resource Trade-offs

Irrigation and yields are closely linked among the NC crops. Maize takes a major share in irrigation and hence its higher yields. Increased irrigation of NC might affect other crops (especially staple cereals) and overall food production. At present, farmers grow paddy as soon as they have access to irrigation. NC promotional policies could increase the competition for water between NC and staple cereals, when they become equally profitable.

Similarly, less fertile lands are allocated to NC crops while more fertile lands are occupied by irrigated crops. While the yield gaps are also attributed to poor soils, expansion of area under NC crops may compete for quality soils.

NC crops are grown mostly by small and marginal farmers in the less endowed (low rainfall, low irrigation) regions and these farmers have limited access to resources like water, credit, etc. Unless substantial support is provided to these farmers the yield gaps would perpetuate.

Policies makers need to minimise the trade-offs between food security and nutrition. In this context:

(i) Reducing the yield gaps between staple cereals and NCs should be the first priority. This requires strengthening the R&D and technology infusion in NC crops.

(ii) Removing market distortions in output (providing price support for select crops) and input (free water, power, etc) markets. These distortions are biased in favour of rice and wheat at present. Policy environment should ensure a level playing field for all the crops rather than supporting some crops.

(iii) Identifying the agro-climatic regions where the trade-off between staple cereals and NCs on one hand and resource trade-offs on the other are less. For instance, moderate rainfall regions may be more appropriate than low rainfall regions for NCs.

(iv) Promotion of better production practices like balanced input use or precision farming could improve the nutritional value of staple cereals, which minimises the trade-off between quantity and quality.

The focus of agriculture policy and research has been mainly towards improving crop productivity. But in the absence of complementary and comprehensive resource policies related to water, soils, input (energy, credit, fertilizers, etc) and output markets, the gains from these interventions have been biased in favour of few crops.

This has effectively checked crop diversification leading to mono-culture and resource degradation. Unless these distortions are effectively addressed, achieving the objectives of food and nutrition security, sustainable agriculture, etc., would be a difficult task.

V Ratna Reddy and Chiranjeevi are with Livelihoods and Natural Resource Management Institute, Hyderabad. Srinivasa Reddy is with Centre for Economic and Social Studies, Hyderabad

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