Is Mamata’s Trinamool set for a shock defeat?

Is Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is facing defeat in the 2016 Assembly elections?

With polling for five out of six phases complete, and the fate of 269 of if 294 assembly seats sealed, Kolkata is suddenly gripped by a strong wave of rumours, confirmed by police sources, that change is underway in favour of the the Congress-Left alliance.

The wave gained momentum this week as 102 seats in the Trinamool bastions of Kolkata, South and North 24-Parganas, Howrah and Hooghly went to polls on April 25 and 30. In 2011, the Left Front won only 10 seats from the region. The Congress, then with the Trinamool, had won two seats.

“Nothing short of a miracle can save the Trinamool from defeat,” a senior official told BusinessLine . He is not alone. At least three officials indicated a swing in favour of the alliance. Police were particularly tough with ruling party activists over the last two phases of election.

Unleashing a reign of terror, corruption issues including the Narada scam, division in Muslim votes (28 per cent) are being cited as change agents. Muslims votes account for more than 20 per cent of the electorate in 125 constituencies, and remained with Banerjee in all previous elections.

The final credit, however, went to the Election Commission for ensuring the tightest security that Bengal has ever seen. Bogus votes were curbed and people were allowed to exercise franchise.

West Bengal witnessed a minor decline in polling percentage from 82 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections to 80 per cent so far this year.

Industry sources close to the ruling dispensation think it will be a close call, with Banerjee coming back to power with a slender margin. They blame Trinamool’s infighting and complacency as major spoilsports.

However, political analysts and psephologists don’t find much substance in the police intelligence’s feedback.

Biswanath Chakraborty, a professor of Rabindra Bharati University and eminent psephologist, thinks Trinamool will return to power with 155-170 seats, down from 184. “The Left-Congress alliance will win 115 to 130 seats, up from 107 (Left 65, Congress 42). They will make a dent in Trinamool’s dominance in North 24 Parganas. But Trinamool will dominate in South Bengal constituencies,” he says.

“BJP may get four seats. They will retain the sole constituency at Basirhat South and may add Kalchini and Madarihat in North Bengal and Jorasanko in Kolkata where an under construction flyover collapsed. BJP’s ally GJM should win three hill constituencies.” Though he points out at some division in Muslim votes, Chakraborty thinks the Trinamool is still a favourite among the community’s members. “There is no common trend in this election. Narada scam has little impact on rural Bengal. Local issues and organisational strengths will be deciding factor,” he says.

Ashis Chatterjee, another city-based analyst also predicted a Trinamool win. According to him, the State doesn’t have a precedence of either a fractured verdict or a sudden mood swing. The winners have always taken time in consolidating support. He cites the fact that votes in favour of the Trinamool in 2011 had begun consolidating ever since the 2008 Panchayat election. The trend continues till 2015 municipal elections.

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