Comments
The month just gone by was the wettest August in the last 15 years.
The country received 286.8 millimeters (mm) rain on an average area-weighted basis last month.
This was not only 9.9 per cent more than the long-period ‘normal' of 261 mm for August, but the highest since the 308.5 mm recorded in August 1996.
DISPROVES IMD
The 9.9 per cent surplus rainfall during the month has also disproved India Meteorological Department's (IMD) predictions.
In its Long Range Forecast Update on June 21, the IMD had said that rainfall in August was likely to be 6 per cent below normal, with a model error of plus or minus nine per cent.
Subsequently, on August 1, it issued an even gloomier forecast outlook for August-September, pointing to a likely shortfall of 10 per cent during these two months with a model error of plus or minus eight per cent.
But with August actually returning a 9.9 per cent surplus, the IMD has ventured to predict that September rainfall could be 10 per cent below normal. The model error this time, though, is plus or minus 15 per cent!
LA NINA
The country's official weather forecaster has sought to play it safe, saying, “if weak La Nina conditions re-emerge in September, the rainfall received can be more than expected”.
Cumulatively, from June to August this year, the total area-weighted rainfall, at 716 mm, has been more than the normal long period average of 713.4 mm for these three months.
Moreover, 32 out of the 36 meteorological subdivisions have had normal to excess rains, with only Haryana-Delhi and the seven North-East States registering ‘deficient' precipitation (meaning 20 per cent or more below normal).
For June to September to become normal, September precipitation must be at least 170.8 mm.
WILL IT?
Only four times in the last 11 years has it rained as much or above during September, and all these have been confirmed La Nina years — 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2010.
One in every two La Nina events has a tendency to repeat itself. The big question is whether the year 2010 event will.
Comments
COMMENT NOW
Comments
Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments.
We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of TheHindu Businessline and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.