Rainfall statistics over the country for the season so far has metamorphosed from a deficit of seven per cent only five days ago to a surplus of two per cent on Monday morning thanks to a strong monsoon burst over West and North-West India during the weekend. Individual deficits in Peninsular India persisted, despite marginal improvement in the affected meteorological subdivisions. 

Jharkhand now worst-hit

Of the 36 subdivisions in all, 15 are in deficit while the rest are in normal, excess or large-excess categories, updated India Meteorological Department (IMD) statistics until Sunday evening showed. Jharkhand (-39 per cent) continued to be the worst-hit, followed by Marathwada (-36 per cent); plains of West Bengal (-34 per cent); Telangana and North Interior Karnataka (-35 per cent each); and Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura (-30 per cent). The rest are at a more manageable -20 per cent and below. 

Trends for North-West India 

On Monday, indications are heavy rain bands over North-West India may now shift to Uttar Pradesh, after pounding the hills and adjoining plains during the weekend. The IMD has said light to moderate to fairly widespread to widespread rain and isolated heavy to very heavy rain may continue to lash the hills, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Rajasthan on Monday and turn the focus on Uttar Pradesh for next five days. Isolated heavy to very heavy rain is predicted over Uttar Pradesh four days. 

Low-pressure area persists

The causative low-pressure area was perched over South-West Rajasthan and may keep moving during the next few days within the larger monsoon trough that extends across Kota, Satna, Daltonganj, Bankura and eastwards to Manipur. Its eastern end may swing back to the Bay of Bengal with the formation of a cyclonic circulation sooner than later, driving up the monsoon from East India yet again. 

Heavy for East India 

The IMD has predicted fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rain for the hills of Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Manipur during next five days. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Odisha during this period; over Jharkhand for next three days; and isolated heavy to very heavy  over Bihar for three days from tomorrow. Over West India, a two-day outlook said moderate to widespread rain with isolated heavy rainfall is likely to continue over Konkan, Goa and the ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra and Gujarat.  

Kerala, Coastal Karnataka

Over rain-deficient Central India, light to moderate to fairly widespread to widespread rain with isolated heavy falls is likely during next five days. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over West Madhya Pradesh on Monday. Over South India too, light to moderate to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is predicted over Coastal Karnataka and Kerala during next five days.