El Nino, the warm ocean water phenomenon that results in prolonged dry phases and droughts in Asia, will likely continue at least until May 2024, the US weather agency Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has said.

“El Nino is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with an 80 per cent chance during March-May 2024),” the CPC, which is part of the US’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said in its Monday update.

It will also coincide with the conditions returning to ENSO-neutral (El Nino La Nina) during the period, it said. 

‘Not as expected’

According to Emily Becker, University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), a stronger El Nino is more likely “that we will see El Nino’s expected thumbprint on winter temperature and rain/snow patterns around the world”.

But Aaron Levine, atmospheric research scientist of Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies (CICOES), University of Washington, said this year the atmosphere has not responded as much as was expected to the rising ocean temperatures.

He told The Conversation website that not much precipitation has happened as in earlier El Nino years and it is taking much time to develop, “and it’s not strong”. 

El Nino extending till May 2024 could impact pre-monsoon rainfall in India and result in a prolonged dry period in Asia, mainly South-East Asia. The fallout will likely affect production of key crops such as rice and oil palm. 

Anomalies rise

CPC said Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El Nino. 

“ In the last week (of September), SST anomalies have increased near the Date Line (central Pacific El Nino),” the weather agency said. 

Over the past four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. “Equatorial SSTs were above average across most of the Pacific Ocean, in the western Indian Ocean, and across much of the Atlantic Ocean,” said CPC. 

For India, the encouraging development is that the CPC said Equatorial SSTs were below average in the eastern Indian Ocean and around Indonesia. This is mainly in view of the Indian Ocean Dipole strengthening and is likely to last until December. 

The US weather agency said since late September subsurface temperature anomalies have persisted. Chances of El Nino extending through January-March 2024 are 95 per cent, it said.

After that El Nino will gradually decrease with a possible return to ENSO-neutral conditions during May-July 2024, the CPC said, adding that a moderate moderate-to-strong El Nino is favoured during May-March 2024.

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