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A fresh low-pressure area alert has been declared over the South-East and adjoining East-Central Arabian Sea (around the Lakshadweep Islands) over the next two days, with a preparatory cyclonic circulation moving across South Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala and undergoing intensification as it tracks further along a familiar West-North-West route.
On Monday, a rain-driving trough ran down in anticipation from South-East Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep area to West-Central Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coast, bringing parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and adjoining Andhra Pradesh under its influence, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in an evening update.
Fairly widespread rain
The twin systems will bring light to moderate to fairly widespread over the South Peninsula during the next 4-5 days, the IMD said in a short-term outlook. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over over Rayalaseema and Coastal Karnataka on Tuesday; over Kerala-Mahe from Tuesday to Thursday; and over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal as well as over South Interior Karnataka during Tuesday to Wednesday.
Light to moderate to scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next seven days indicating how upstream Bay of Bengal would stay active. Meanwhile, to the farther North-North-West, a western disturbance as a trough runs roughly across Iran. It may move East across Afghanistan and Pakistan before entering North-West India but would have started to affect the hills of North-West India (Western Himalayas) from Tuesday night itself (November 7).
Western disturbance arriving
It could trigger light rainfall or snowfall at isolated places likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh- Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad from Tuesday to Friday and over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand from Wednesday to Saturday. It would also bring some showers to the planes with isolated light rain predicted over West Rajasthan on Wednesday and Thursday, and over Punjab on Thursday. Light to moderate to isolated to scattered rain is likely over Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra for the next five days.
A few global models suggest the rains could be heavier over parts of Gujarat, Mumbai-Konkan and Goa as well as adjoining West India and Maharashtra for the next 8-10 days likely after the western disturbance interacts with the prospective low-pressure area around the Lakshadweep, kicking up rain in an East-North-East direction. These parts as well as adjoining Peninsular India may continue to receive light showers until November before drying up later and even more so early into December.
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